We Will Cross the Mighty Ocean and the Charleston Bay / Sail Away

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As far as I can tell, the Seattle Mariners play in the city of Seattle in Canada’s farthest southwest province, Washington. After a few abominable years, the Mariners started to show some signs of life last year, climbing into second place with their first winning season (88 Wins) since 2003. This year, they are looking to build on that success and challenge the Angels for the National League West title.

Team Projections (credit: Jim Street, Mariners.MLB.com)

Lineup
OF Ichiro Suzuki
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
OF Raul Ibanez
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Richie Sexson
C Kenji Johjima
OF Brad Wilkerson
DH Jose Vidro
2B Jose Lopez.

Starting Rotation
SP Felix Hernandez
SP Erik Bedard
SP Miguel Batista
SP Carlos Silva
SP Jarrod Washburn

Bullpen
RHP J.J. Putz
RHP Brendan Morrow
LHP Eric O’Flaherty
RHP Sean Green
LHP Arthur Rhodes

Manager
John McLaren

Why they’re good
All things considered, Ichiro is the best leadoff hitter in the American League and just may be the best leadoff player in the game. While the 2001 AL Rookie of the Year and MVP* does not have the power of Hanley Ramirez or the sheer speed of Jose Reyes, he has both extraordinary range in CF and a cannon arm (although the Gold Glove Award is all but meaningless, his seven gold gloves in seven seasons does not hurt my argument, especially considering how difficult it is to get one in RF, where he played his first six MLB seasons). And he shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, he’s even been hitting for a bit more power the last few seasons, averaging 21 2B, 9 3B and 10 HR per year, while still averaging a .325 BA with 38 SB over that span. Last year was, arguably, his best yet, with a .396 OBP and .431 SLG.

There is not quite as much to say about the rest of the lineup, though Betancourt is developing into an above-average shortstop, Ibanez is still chugging away and Johjima is solid behind the plate. I have never been a huge fan of Beltre, but he seems to be getting a bit more used to Safeco and the American League after signing a huge contract following his (possibly) steroids-fueled run to 48 HR in cavernous Dodger Stadium. At 23 and entering his third full season, Jose Lopez still has some time to blossom.

They already had King Felix and then added Erik Bedard. Both of these guys are capable to shutting any opponent out on any given day and they will make the Mariners tough in a short series, provided they can make it to one. Neither has yet managed 200 IP in a season, (though Bedard made 33 starts in ’06 and Hernandez made 31 in ’06 and 30 in ’07). Barring injury, and if the Mariners stay in the race, both should be able to crack 200 this year. As a side note, I do not know much about Hernandez’s personal life, but Bedard, the son and brother of elevator mechanics, seems like a really down-to-Earth guy. As an added bonus, he’s Canadian, which will help since he is playing half of his games there.

Finally, J.J. Putz is awesome. Over 71 2/3 innings, The Michiganian posted an unreal 0.70 WHIP last season, striking out 82, while walking only 13. To put this in perspective, Goldenboy Jonathan Papelbon, over 58 1/3, posted a 0.77 WHIP, struck out 84 and walked 15. Not only is Putz in good company, he’s better than it.

Why they’re not

First, they didn’t get A-Rod back. Additionally, although he is a capable player, Jose Vidro is not who you want to see as your Designated Hitter. I hate the DH and, even moreso, hate the idea of encouraging teams to get big, fat loads like David Ortiz, but it just seems like a waste to use a second baseman there. I love Brad Wilkerson, and he’s still got some power, but he’s a liability in the OF now and just doesn’t play well enough to justify starting at first base. Richie Sexson is coming off an abysmal year (less than .700 OPS). I mean, these are Rob Deer-type numbers. But, who knows, maybe he’ll bounce back. Infield depth could be an issue, especially if it leads to us seeing Miguel Cairo or Willie Bloomquist.

The rest of the pitching staff is pretty average. Batista has been lucky to keep his ERA at the league average the past four years, with WHIPs of 1.52, 1.43, 1.53 and 1.52 from 2004-2007 (though he pitched in relief in ’05). Silva is not striking anyone out, but if he can limit his walks and the long ball like he did in 2005 (9 BB and 25 HR in 188 IP) you cannot be too displeased. On the other hand, if he starts serving them up, we could see another season like he had in 2006, where he lost his spot in the rotation en route to posting a 1.54 WHIP and 5.94 ERA. Washburn has had flashes of brilliance in his career, but has not been more than an average pitcher of late.

Wildcards
This team needs Bedard and Hernandez not only to stay healthy, but to pitch deep into ballgames as well. Although Washburn and Silva will eat innings, Batista is not a sure bet to do so, and McLaren will probably have to lean heavily on his bullpen in close games with those 3, 4 and 5 starters.

The Mariners will also need more production from Beltre and Sexson this year if they want to make a push for the division title.

Overall Offseason
Although all the signs point to Adam Jones being a stud, I like the move for Bedard. As general manager Bill Bavasi said, “To go from a 60-win team, a lousy team, to 88 wins, that’s not tough. But going from 88 on, that’s a little tougher to do . . . if you don’t make a bold move, you have a real good chance of going back to 80 . . . it’s time to go out and try to win.”

I’m not in love with the idea of a 4-year, $46M (this is USD!) deal for Carlos Silva, because it just seems like you’re not getting all you could be for that kind of money. They did not have Bedard, who has two years left until free agency, when they signed Silva, but if they had, perhaps they could have included some of this money into a long-term deal.

Offseason Grade: B+
Overall Grade: B

*only persons affiliated with the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative should be eligible for the Most Valuable Player award