Saturday, February 16, 2008

Purple Mountain Madness



The next team up in the NL West are the Colorado Rockies. If any team can compete with the Arizona Diamondbacks Cinderella-esque story of last year, it's the Colorado Rockies. Many preseason predictions had the Rockies pinned as the best 4th place team in the division (possibly 5th). Despite showing flashes of competitiveness and legitimacy in 2006, the Rockies still did not look like they could compete against the rest of the NL West. But then Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt and Randy Johnson all flopped for their respective teams, the Dodgers collapsed and the Rockies as a team matured all at once to finish with the second best record in the National League (and only by half a game). Amazing? Yes. Lucky? Sure. But a complete surprise? Ehh maybe it was just me who thought it wasn't too surprising, but the Rockies had very quietly established a solid foundation and a fundamentally sound team.

It all began when the Rockies dealt Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio (yea, I don't know him either) for Willy Taveras, Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz. Some questioned the move at first, Jason Jennings was ROY for the Rockies back in 2002 and was their best starting pitcher. However, Jennings was a year away from free agency, the Rockies needed a center fielder and Jason Hirsh lit up the minors (Buccholz isn't so bad either). In 20/20 hindsight, the trade looks absolutely genius. Another big component to last season was the emergence of Troy Tulowitzki (he was the NL ROY in my mind). Tulowitzki, after a slow start, adjusted to the majors and aside from having one of the best defensive seasons for a shortstop, put up some pretty solid offensive numbers (.291, 24 hrs, 99 rbi, 104 runs, 7 sbs) and stepped up as a leader. His attitude on and off the field suggested he is wise/mature beyond his years. Along the way, the Rockies suffered their share of injuries, Taveras and Matsui missed clumps of time with various injuries and the starting rotation was basically decimated. Aside from Francis and Fogg, everyone else in the rotation suffered injuries (in 2006 Rockies starters suffered the least injuries of any starting staff). Aaron Cook, Jason Hirsh and Rodrigo Lopez all went down and (with the exception of Cook who only did in the postseason) didn't resurface the rest of the year. However, these injuries appeared to be more of a blessing than a curse. The Rockies got to see Ubaldo Jimenez and then Franklin Morales rise from the minors and pitch better than most could have predicted. Some more stuff happened too but aside from Manny Corpas emerging as a reliable closer not much of it is worth mentioning.

The Rockies this year are generally regarded as being a team that can go either way. Some expect them to continue growing and become even better, but most tend to think that they got hot at the right time and were a flash in the pan and that they can't compete with the Dbacks, Padres and Dodgers (sound familiar?). Their biggest question going into next year is who will replace Kaz Matsui (gone to Houston) and play second base? They have practically a baseball team-worth of players competing for this spot. Jasyon Nix is going into spring training as the favorite due to his superior defense and his fine offensive performance at AAA. But in the mix are Omar Quintanilla, Clint Barmes, Marcus Giles, Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart. Its an interesting mix of candidates; veterans trying to reclaim lost glory, utility men hoping to be more than just utility men or prospects trying to get their chance at full time play. I personally would like to see Stewart prove he's a deft second baseman and get the gig. His offensive potential is great and I'm not sure how much more he can get from the minors. But this is a competition I'll let spring training and the Rockies decide. The bullpen is also a little questionable. After Brian Fuentes, the 'pen lacks lefties. This is where Franklin Morales could shine if he doesn't make the rotation (although I'd like him to have a little more seasoning in AAA). Also, Chris Iannetta is a big question mark in my opinion. He was a ROY candidate last year but struggled Andruw Jones-style for most of the season. He was then sent back down and when he came up (albeit a small sample), all he did was hit. If he can regain and maintain whatever he was doing at the end of last season, he could add another strong bat to the NL West's strongest lineup. Also in the mix are Greg Reynolds and Casey Weathers. Both are former first round picks and both can have an impact on the club this year. Reynolds showed he had talent (1.42 era in 50.2 innings with 9bb and 35k's at AA), but suffered an injury and needed exploratory surgery (he's back to 100%, or so they say). Casey Weathers was their first round pick from last year and is a right-handed relief pitcher from Vanderbuilt. He's expected to have a relatively quick ascent through the minors and could provide solid bullpen help down the stretch.

Since we all know the Rockies have a sick lineup with Taveras, Tulo, Holliday, Helton, Atkins and Hawpe, what it all comes down to next year for the Rox is pitching. If Aaron Cook and his mighty sinker can reach potential, and if Jason Hirsh, Ubaldo Jimenez and someone out of the Franklin Morales/Josh Towers/Victor Zambrano/Kip Wells/Mark Redman debacle can rise up, the Rockies will be nothing short of a National League juggernaut.

Peace, Paul.

(image provided courtesy of USAtoday)

3 comments:

A Brancato said...

Good article Paul,

I like Stewart overall at second base. But it will be important he works out there in spring training (not sure if that's what the Rockies intend to do) so he can get settled. He's been a man forced out of not one (first base) but two (third base) positions. I'd give him the job out of spring training and give Nix the shot if he falters.

I like their rotation but I just don't think Aaron Cook is a number 2. But that shouldn't be a problem as I do believe that Ubaldo Jimenez can be a perfect number 2 if he proves himself.

But their bullpen is extremely shaky. Beyond Corpas, Fuentes, and Vizcaino, none of the bullpen has good major league experience (actually if you don't include Buchholz and Jose Capellan, barely experience at all in the past few years). They do need that lefty in the bullpen but it's more important Morales remains in the rotation as he and Francis are the only lefties.

Perhaps the Rockies should take a flyer on Ron Villone and Eric Milton, two very cheap, stable options.

Though I see the D-Backs winning the division and Mets/Phillies for the Wildcard. But they are a few bullpen parts away from perennial consistency.

waldinho said...

paul --

good article, i am looking forward to seeing how the rockies pan out this year. hopefully they can have a smooth transition from my personal favorite kazuo at second base.

anthony --

i am not quite sure how important it is to have a rotation with two lefties in the NL West. If we all agree that Arizona is Colorado's main competition and Arizona is not really stacked with left-handed batting, how important are lefty starters?

-wal

Paul said...

True, left handed starters are overrated (it might come in handy if they face the Yankees in the World Series). Of course I'd rather see him in the rotation because he seems like he'd be a quality pitcher. Though he probably doesn't, this could be a good year for Aaron Cook to have a career year. He's been injured with either muscle strains or blood clots in his lungs and hasn't had a chance to really get into a solid year to year rhythm. I don't think the Rockies have such a bad bullpen. It's certainly not the flashiest and it doesn't seem to compare to Saito/Broxton or Hoffman/Bell but I feel with Corpas, Fuentes, Vizcaino along with Herges and possibly a revitalized Ramon Ramirez (remember him?) they have very solid relief. Thats aside from Buccholz who's a fine long reliever. Also worthy of note are Ryan Speier who was a closer in the minors and who filled in well late last year and as I mentioned, either Greg Reynolds or Casey Weathers. The Rockies certainly have depth and should find a reliable bullpen out of that.