Just a little bit of dialogue from the Mets 1-1 tie in 10 innings two days ago against the Boston Red Sox:
Gary Cohen: So, well that's it, Francona gives the signal its over, Willie concurs and that's the game. So what's that addage Keith, it's like kissing your sister right?
Keith Hernandez: I don't have any sisters so I don't know what it's like.
Cohen: Well you know how it is.
Hernandez: I wish I had a sister though, I really do.
Hey everyone, I'm finally feeling a bit better, though my cough is still lingering. But it won't linger quite as long as the losses of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana for the Twins. Though it is quite nice when a team knows when to pack it in and rebuild, its both logical for the organization (especially a small-market organization) and fun for the fans to see the kids rise through the rankings. Kids indeed, this year's team only has one player, Adam Everett (31), over 30 in the starting lineup. I'll break it down by projected starting line-up and rotation.
Can Carlos Gomez fill Torii Hunter's shoes in center?
Assuming Carlos Gomez doesn't totally fall apart in spring training (2 hits in 13 at-bats isn't so great but no one else has stepped up), the center field position is his to lose. Gomez looks to fill Torii Hunter's shoes in center, but plays a much different offensive game. Defensively, Gomez shouldn't have too much trouble tracking down balls in center at the spacious Metrodome (as you all know Gomez was believed to have been faster than Jose Reyes). Offensively, Gomez will take full advantage of the very quick turf and if he becomes a slap hitter (a la Luis Castillo), he should be just fine. He's not a power hitter and never will be, but there's nothing stopping him from becoming an above-average center fielder both offensively and defensively. Look for Gomez to put up numbers something like this: .265 avg, 8 homers, 45 RBIs, and 40 stolen bases.
Joe Mauer is looking to bounce back from a hernia, quad, and hamstring injury that plagued him for most of last season. Despite the injuries, Mauer had a very good season by hitting .293 with 7 homers and 60 RBIs in 406 at-bats. He was also very solid behind the plate, with 1 error, 35 assists and 598 putouts in 91 games. He will be asked to help anchor a rotation with 4 out of 5 members having only a full year of experience or less behind them. He has also never struck out more than 64 times in a season, making him a great number 2 hitter as he often puts the ball in play. Mauer, should post numbers similar to last season except with an average more around .320.
Delmon Young is hoping this is the fresh start he needs to take his baseball career to the next level. Young, 22, maybe hitting over-his-head as the number 3 this season, but there's no question that in 2009, he'll be truly ready to be a major part of this lineup. Young had a great year last season, his first full one in the majors by hitting .288 with 13 homers and 93 RBIs. This should be the perfect situation for Young, he shouldn't run into any distractions this season and should become the player everyone thinks he can be. He also looks to improve on his fielding in left but that adjustment should be close to seemless with Gomez out there in center. This season he should hit about .280, with 25 homers and 100 RBIs.
Justin Morneau has been a staple in this lineup for the past three seasons, but has not been counted on as much has he will be this season. In 2007 he had a great year by hitting .271 with 31 homers and 111 RBIs. After signing a six-year $80 million contract (the largest in franchise history), he will be the cornerstone the Twins will build around for years to come. It should be an interesting year for Morneau, 28, to see if he crumbles under the pressure or rises to the occasion. I thought after 2004 and 2005 (hitting .271 and .235 respectively) that he would be nothing more than an average first baseman, but I was wrong. Morneau should rise to the occasion as the Twins try to keep themselves from finishing 4th in the AL Central. Expect Morneau to put up numbers simlar to 2006: .321 AVG, 34 homers and 130 RBIs.
Michael Cuddyer had a breakout year in 2006: .284 AVG with 24 homers and 109 RBIs. While Cuddyer is a steady hitter he is nothing spectacular. What he hit in 2007, I'd expect to be his averages for the rest of his career: .276 AVG, 16 homers and 81 RBIs. His .356 OBP and 107 strikeouts last season are good for a five hitter. Cuddyer has been just about average in right field. But should Cuddyer slip this season, look for the Twins to be in trouble as Morneau will walk much more than last season's career high of 64. So far so good right? After Cuddyer, there is a huge dropoff.
Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe will be splitting time at the DH spot. Kubel, 25, has never made much of a splash in the majors, he hit .273 with 13 homers and 65 RBIs last season. Monroe is a bit more seasoned having played five full seasons in the majors and hitting .219 with 12 homers and 59 RBIs in only 392 at-bats. Monroe has always been quite the decent outfielder so I would envision Monroe being used more to spell Young, Gomez and Cuddyer in the outfield. But overall, because neither of these players are all that great, this platoon will extend into the outfield constantly. Thus giving Gomez and Young the time they need to adjust. Kubel and Monroe will probably post the same as their 2007 numbers, with Monroe posting closer to a .250 AVG.
Brendan Harris came over to the Twins with Delmon Young in the deal that sent Matt Garza to the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. Harris, 27, never got constant playing time until last season with the Devil Rays when he hit .286 with 12 homers and 59 RBIs. Harris will have to adjust being a second baseman after playing shortstop for most of 2007. But he will have a lot of help with Adam Everett at short who is a stellar fielder. We'll see this year if last season was a fluke for Harris. I'd say his numbers drop a little bit: .270 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs.
Mike Lamb spent his four seasons in Houston stuck behind third baseman Morgan Ensberg. Lamb's chance to be an everyday player never really arose, even after Ensberg was traded last August. With some labeling his defense as "suspect," Lamb instead spent the rest of the '07 season playing behind Ty Wigginton in a year in which he hit .289 with 11 homers and 40 RBIs in 124 games. After signing a two-year $6.6 million deal in the offseason, Lamb finally has his shot. Lamb should have a below average season as he adjusts to the American League: .270 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs.
Adam Everett, like Lamb, decided to sign with Minnesota in the offseason. He saw the writing on the wall after the Astros dealt for Miguel Tejada. Everett has always been an astute fielder and usually makes the infield around him better. With Harris at a new position and Lamb's first as a full-time starter, Everett will be a definite asset defensively. But offensively, he'll really be a liability, he hit .232 with 2 homers and 15 RBIs in 220 at-bats last year. Look for Everett to hit around .250 with possibly 10 homers and 50 RBIs.
The Twins rotation right now is as follows (with 2007 stats)
1. Scott Baker, 9-9, 4.26 ERA
2. Boof Bonser, 8-12, 5.01 ERA
3. Livan Hernandez, 11-11, 4.93 ERA
4. Franciso Liriano, 12-3, 2.16 ERA (2006, DNP in 2007)
5. Kevin Slowey, 4-1, 4.73 ERA
The strength of this rotation lies on whether or not Liriano can bounce back from Tommy John surgery in November 2006. Of all these players, Liriano and Baker are the only ones who could become an ace of this staff.
Baker, 26, has fallen into the ace role by default but has the potential to truly fill his role. He struggled mightily in 2006 (3-3, 6.37 ERA in 83.1 IP) and was forced down to the minors after winning the number 5 slot in the rotation. After a great bounce back year in 2007, he finds himself atop the Twins rotation. He should build on last season's success (and near perfect game against the Kansas City Royals on August 31st).
Bonser is dangerous as a number 2 (Liriano should be the number 2 in no time though) I see Bonser more as a 3rd or 4th starter. His game is more offspeed and has struggled to make it past the 5th and 6th innings in his career. But he has lost 20 pounds in the offseason so we will see if that makes a difference.
Livan Hernandez is your prototypical number 4 starter as an innings eater. That's really all he is at this point in his career, look for Nick Blackburn to push him out of the rotation for 2009.
Slowey has been noticeably struggling in the spring thus far, the right-hander struggled in his first Grapefruit League start on Wednesday, giving up three runs on five hits over his two innings against the Yankees. It was the second disappointing outing in a row for the right-hander. Slowey allowed three runs on four hits over 1 2/3 innings in his first spring appearance, facing the Red Sox. It's not what the Twins expected to see from Slowey, who after being recalled on Sept. 3 from Triple-A Rochester, the right-hander went 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six outings last year.
The back-end of the Twins bullpen shapes up to look like this:
Closer: Joe Nathan, 37/41 saves, 1.88 ERA
Right-handed set-up man: Pat Neshek, 2.94 ERA
Left-handed set-up man: Dennys Reyes, 3.99 ERA
Nathan is always steady. In the final year of his contract look for the 33-year-old to keep his number around the same, maybe a few less saves, just because there will be less opportunities. Neshek emerged on the scene in 2006 and became an immediate fantasy darling for leagues that count holds as a stat. In 2007, his numbers took a slight hit after pitching 27 more innings than the previous season. Look for Neshek to usually be the eighth-inning bridge regardless of how many righties the opposition has to bat. Dennys Reyes, was a below average pitcher until his ridiculous 2006 season where he went 5-0 with a .89 ERA in 50.2 innings. Last season he did come back down to earth but which season was a fluke? I'd guess Reyes's ERA will be a little lower this season but float around 3.50.
The Minnesota Twins will struggle this year because they are an extremely young team, but they have made some shrewd moves in order to better themselves for the future. The big holes lie past Cuddyer in the lineup, once those are patched with prospects, the team will be in very good shape for 2009 and beyond.
On a side note, woo hoo! I finally got my diploma from Stony Brook, I was seriously starting to doubt whether or not I had missed a class or something. Make sure if you ever go to Stony Brook University you take Hong Kong Martial Arts Cinema, a class that exemplifies the standard of education that Stony Brook has to offer. Thats right!
Statistics courtesy of twincitylongball.com, picture courtesy of mlb.com
Flashing the Trivia answer: Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Luis Castillo, and Jason Bartlett
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4 comments:
Anthony --
why don't you save the flashing the trivia answers for the following post? this way, people could respond with their answers. obviously, the answers will always be on the internet, but if you are lame enough to cheat, you shouldn't bother answering.
Anyway, as for your Twins preview --
Carlos Gomez . . . I don't think he's ready for the majors. Even when his numbers were good for the Mets, he looked totally exposed. Additionally, I fail to see how artificial turf helps a fast runner more than a slow runner. If anything, I think it would help a slow runner more because if a SS makes a good play on a ball in the hole he is more likely to throw out a slow runner than a fast runner, anyway.
Also, wasn't Justin Morneau MVP in 2006? How could the Twins rely on him more this season than when he was voted MVP?
And finally, here's a little Flashing the Trivia for you. Which star Twins player took classes in the same building as you? And which former star Twins player took classes in the same building as me?
Ha, I wish people would respond with their answers. But I do have an idea with that. I'll do one flashing the trivia a week and incorporate it into the poll.
Playing on turf can turn any ball hit into the outfield into an adventure. Singles into doubles, doubles into triples, etc, thus helping speedy players who are gap hitters. Gomez isn't a gap hitter but I believe he can be a slap hitter turning those singles into doubles. But yes, as you note, turf can be a liability for a hitter if it remains in the infield.
Right, Morneau was MVP in 2006. Just because he was voted MVP doesn't mean that he didn't have some help in the lineup. This year, he really doesn't have much help in the lineup (outside of Mauer and Young).
Joe Nathan I know went to Stony Brook, I don't know the other player though.
I thought Carlos Gomez had some power? Not a lot but enough for maybe 15-20 homers when and if he reaches potential... I will say this though, I think he looks a hell of a lot better in a Twins uniform. But then again, I think blue and orange look pretty ugly together...
I like Delmon Young, I really do, but I think he's going to have to learn how to draw a walk before I take him as a legit hitter. But if Jeff Francoeur can go from 23bb to 42bb I'm not losing hope just yet.
Just as a side note, I don't know if it's official but I know having Livian Hernandez as their opening day starter is being talked about.
You are right about Joe Nathan going to Stony Brook.
The other player was Frank Viola, who went to East Meadow High School
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