Since Darwin's publication in 1859, there really have not been any seminal works. However, on 10 March 2008, less than a week ago, Paul Daugherty changed that and drew the United States up ahead of those wankers in England and the caffoni in Italy.
His recent article, [Cincinnati Reds Manager Dusty] Baker judges by his senses just may change how people see, not only baseball, but the world.
Before reading Daugherty's article, I thought that batters wanted to walk. Now I realize that "walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth." He also continues to advocate the Reds trading Joey Votto and Homer Bailey for Joe Blanton.
Before reading this jewel, my problem was not so much with Blanton (although I thought this would be a terrible trade for the Reds to make) as it was with Daugherty's argument for him and arguments against statistics in general. Now I have been made to understand that the only pitching statistic that matters is "Games Won."
He has also made me realize that stats like Flyball/Groundball Ratio are unnecessarily complex and Home and Road ERA Splits are too arbitrary and confusing to have any utility when assessing players' strong and weak points.
He goes on to break down statistical analysis the way it should be done: A way that average scientists like me can understand. Who knew that at the end of the season, when all is said and done, each time a batter walks, he has wasted an opportunity to bat in one half of a run? If I had only known that taking fewer first-pitch strikes would improve run production, I could have imparted that wisdom to Tim Raines. If only he'd realized that those 1330 plate appearances where he'd walked could have been changed into 665 RBI, maybe he could have been a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.
Finally, Daugherty ties up the article in the clearest, simplest manner, by listing the Managerial Win tallies of Dusty Baker and Bill James. 1162 - 0.
Just to put Daugherty's numbers in a bit more perspective here, a little further research shows that Baker also lost 1041 games (for a Winning Rate of .527). Never mind the fact that he has managed the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs who have consistently had two of the highest payrolls in the NL in recent years.
In 2002, Baker's final year in SF, the Giants finished in second place, with 95 Wins and a $78 M payroll, but the only teams with higher payrolls and fewer wins were the NY Mets (75 Wins, $95 M) and the LA Dodgers (92 W, $95 M). In 2006, Baker's final year in Chicago, the Cubs finished with 66 Wins, least in the National League, 17 1/2 games out of first. Please also note that the Cubs had the highest payroll in their division and 3rd highest in the National League.
But, then again, at least Baker knows his scotch.
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Just for fun, Bill James actually has 2 world series rings and Dusty Baker has 1.
Also for fun, here's our friend Mr. Daugherty on global warming:
As for the Global Warming freaks... please deliver my pizza to the radio station at 9 tonight when, if warnings of the apocalypse hold, I will be spending the night, globally warmed by 10 inches of snow. I will be hungry. When you arrive, you can explain to me why it's called Green-land, what's bad about longer growing seasons in northern climates and open shipping lanes where there used to be impassable ice. Because I am the tiniest bit skeptical about melting icecaps, or at least about the catastrophically rising ocean levels guaranteed to drown us all, please show me the data indicating rising water levels in, say, New York harbor, or on the beaches in, I dunno, South Carolina. Then prove to me, beyond reasonable doubt, how all of it owes to greenhouse gases and such.
You actually have to admire the guy's consistency, though. His approach to science is exactly the same as his approach to sabermetrics. If he's too lazy/dumb to understand it, it doesn't exist.
He does understand one thing, though. As time passes by and people don't eat, they become more and more hungry. For example, at 9 tonight, he'll be hankering for a pizza.
Yes this article is indeed a classic. Paul Daugherty has clearly missed the point of Moneyball, and that type of general managing. He's missed it, so much so, that I wonder if he's actually read the book.
Daugherty wants simple, how about this for simple: Moneyball is about how Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta took a small market team and kept them playoff contenders by finding value in undervalued players.
Maybe that last sabermetical statement was still a bit too complex.
Moneyball has absolutely nothing, I repeat, NOTHING, to do with managing during a ball game. I don't remember specifically but there were maybe one or two instances tops, that Michael Lewis wrote about Beane's sabermetrical analysis's when it came to actual game-time situations that him and DePodesta made.
The clear misstep is seen in this quote: "Managing, means exactly what it says: the ability to manage people. How Baker runs a game strategically is far less important than what he is able to pull from his employees, 162 times a summer."
Yeah, you can pull from whoever you feel like pulling from when your payroll is almost tops in the league, as Jesse noted.
But sabermetric general managing + high payroll= The Boston Red Sox, it can make for a deadly combination.
In fact, Beane rarely watched a game, period. He used to get so pissed at game situations that he would be hitting the weights during most A's games.
Moneyball, as Jesse mentioned in his Athletics review, is based on the fact that there is something in players that can be seen as undervalued.
It has to do with essentially assembling a team of two or three tool players in hopes of finding a value in one or two aspects of baseball a particular player excels at.
It may not be the best way to assemble a team but it certainly is the most efficient.
Haha, Votto and Bailey for Blanton would be a total joke.
Oh and just in case we were unclear, maybe Daugherty should ask
James E Cayne, CEO of Bear Stearns, how "managing by the seat of your pants" worked for him.
Keep up the good work.
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