Dame with A Rod

Hey all, just a quick post to respond to the Daily News article on A-Rod's regret for signing a 10-year, $252M contract with the Texas Rangers instead of choosing to play for less with the New York Mets.



First of all, despite what my boss thinks, I have always thought A-Rod was good at skating the line between being a complete douche and an okay guy for a ballplayer, which is better than many elite athletes.

The reigning American League MVP was famously lampooned for being classless back in October when it was announced that he'd chosen to opt out of his contract during the final game of the World Series. His agent, Scott Boras, later took full responsibility for the poor timing of the announcement and the distraction it caused. As a quick aside, what exactly did the announcement distract us from? I seem to remember being more interested in the game of pool I was shooting than the game I was sort of watching on television. I don't even remember his opting out being announced.

In the Daily News article, A-Rod explains that he made a mistake in signing his contract with Texas for the money and that he did not want to repeat that mistake, which is why he flamed Boras and chose instead to negotiate his new contract with the Yankees on his own.

In my opinion, Rodriguez has, once again, said all the right things. The article is a puff-piece, but that's okay. A-Rod deserves something for ditching Boras. The season hasn't even started yet; there's still plenty of time for the media to get on his back for no apparent reason.

Mess with Texas

Your favorite NL Central preview is back after an extended break! On the menu today are the Houston Astros, and why not start off with pitching?

Their Ace, of course, is Roy Oswalt. Just about seven years after his MLB Debut he has a career ERA of 3.07 with 112 wins and 54 losses. He's coming off a year true to his average numbers winning 14 games with half the losses and a 3.18 ERA. So I think it's safe to say that Oswalt is the focal point of this Houston pitching staff; it just goes way downhill after him (which is pretty much the trend in the NL Central). Their number two starter is Wandy Rodriguez. That's pretty terrible. Last season he was pushing nearly a 4.60 ERA with only 9 wins, and thats typical of him. Don't expect him to all of a sudden become a true #2 starter (but since I said that he will do amazing to spite me, because Wandy and I talk all the time and he likes to spite me). Following Wandy is a mediocre Brandon Backe, the old geezer Woody Williams, and Chris Sampson. Not impressive at all.

Meanwhile in the bullpen the Astros acquired closer Jose Valverde, who had 47 saves last season with a 2.66 ERA. So if the Astros manage to make it to the 9th inning with a slim lead, then I'd feel pretty confident in them getting the win with him on the mound.

On to offense, I must start with Kazuo Matsui! He had his best year in the majors last season with the Rockies, batting .288 with 32 stolen bases and, 4 homers and 37 RBI. Not that great for that being his best season. But then again, he's always getting injured; For instance, he is already slated to be on the DL at the start of this season!
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7250/news
Our fellow blogger, Jesse, brought this article to our attention. How silly! Only Kaz. I remember hearing about how he was sleeping and somehow one of his contacts cut his eye or something like that and he ended up on the DL (I think) for that. I don't wear contacts, but isn't it common sense not to wear them while you're sleeping anyway?

Now to real offensive players, the Astros aquired Miguel Tejada in the offseason to play short stop. Tejeada Will definitely provide a good bat for the Astros, but as you all know, I'm sure, he was involved with the whole Mitchell Report nonsense. I haven't been keeping up with it lately so I don't know whats going on with him, but I feel like he somehow won't be able to play a full season because of that. He shouldn't anyway if he's a cheater, but I guess if any division needs to cheat its definitely the NL Central, thats for sure! Too bad the Astros don't have Pettitte and Clemens anymore.

Out in Left Field is Carlos Lee, who had a fantastic season last year, driving in 119 runs with an average slightly above .300 and 43 doubles. To me he is pretty much like Miguel Tejada, except, hopefully, not a cheater. So in other words, he's a reliable bat in this lineup. I'm looking for him to have a similar season as last year. Another player similar to Lee and Tejada is Lance Berkman, who plays first base and is hitting .300 in his career with 855 RBI, last season hitting .278 with 102 RBI and 34 home runs. In Center Field is Michael Bourn. I don't know why, but for some reason I like him. Maybe its his name, Bourn is a cool last name (Paul knows all about my cool name draft policy from 2006). He's young though and this will be his first season as a starter; I think he may be exciting to watch. Last season in 119 at bats he hit 3 doubles and 3 triples with 18 stolen bases; he's got some speed obviously.

Now on to my favorite player on this team, Hunter Pence. Like Bourn, this will also be his first full season as a starter. Last season he was called up to fill in for an injury (I believe) and he tore it up! He hit .322 with 17 home runs, 69 RBI, 30 doubles and 9 triples in 108 games. I think he will do just as well this season (and he better since he's on one of my fantasy teams!) and if not, he's young so look to him to shape up to be one of the best, consistent hitters in the majors in a few years.

So the Astros have a decent offensive lineup with Tejada, Lee, Berkman and Pence, but I'm not so sure thats enough to make up for their horrible starting pitching staff. They should find a way to clone Oswalt 4 times, and then I'd put my money on them making it to the World Series.

Monthly Maintenance Update

Hey everyone,

Figured I'd give all our loyal readers out there an update on whats going on at Flashing the Leather. Paul has created a message board for everyone. You can discuss anything you want as it is separated by divisions and some topics that will change from time to time.

You also don't have to sign up, I REPEAT, NO SIGNING UP FOR ANYTHING! to leave comments.

Also, with a simple setting switch apparently, to leave a comment on a blog post now, YOU NO LONGER HAVE TO SIGN UP EITHER! Anonymous comments are better then no comments, I know you guys are out there.

Our original plan was to get the team previews out just in time for the season. It is looking like we are not gonna make it. But not to worry, we're going to finish them up anyway. It maybe by late April but we will get you those previews.

Fellow bloggers, until we finish these previews to save some time, I will also encourage link posting to other articles you find interesting. So with your preview, a non-related (still in beat) link post to another article. Maybe 100 or so words about it, I think that would work. Of course you can simply just write about what ever you want with that too but I know we are all pressed for time. All I ask for is an additional link and maybe a few opinionated sentences about it.

Questions, Comments, Cheppelle Show rants, anything. Everyone (visitors too) can email me at abrancato85@hotmail.com.

Take care all and have a very Happy Easter!

Ooh, the People Be Bumpin' (at Bump City)

http://daboogiedownbronx.mlblogs.com/da_bronx_bombers/images/da_reg_1.jpg


For those of you who don't listen to horn-based soul music, today's post title comes from a Tower of Power song. "Bump City" is slang, of course, for Oakland, home to Tower of Power and Connie Mack's Philadelphia Athletics.

Flashing the Trivia! Which former Tower of Power bass player is now considered to be a father of one of the worst scandals in Major League Baseball history?


The Athletics have qualified for the playoffs five times since 2000 (reaching 100 wins twice, in 2001 and 2002) and have posted at least 87 wins eight of the last nine seasons. Unfortunately, the one season where they didn't manage 87 wins was last year (76-86). Last year it all seemed to fall apart for the A's, who had been considered a top-flite club for years. Whether people have caught on to Billy Beane's highly statistical sabermetic approach or it was just a combination of bad luck and injuries is up to speculation.

The focus of this article is not to discuss sabermetrics, so I will not do so, but I would like to point out that my opinion is that there will always be inefficiencies in the market for ballplayers (and anything else) and so sabermetrics will never truly be outgrown. Some argue that walks, for example, were underappreciated (players with high BB/PA were not rewarded enough in their salaries) five years ago, but that the current market has adjusted to value them properly. While this may be the case, the point of Moneyball was not that walks are underappreciated, but that something was underappreciated. The key to winning an unfair game is to exploit whatever is undervalued at the time and I firmly believe that, although it is cyclical as to what will be undervalued, there will always be something, whether it is speed, fielding ability, power, reliability or any other player attribute.

Anyway, I apologize for that tangent, but I do think it is relatively necessary to discuss sabermetrics, at least a bit, in any, even relatively accurate, analysis of the Athletics as long as Billy Beane is still General Manager there. So, the A's seem to have lost some of their flair last year and traded away the ace of last year's staff, Danny Haren, to Houston for six prospects this past offseason. They also swapped one of their best hitters, Nick Swisher, to the Chicago White Sox for three prospects. This year's team does not look competitive and, indeed, it does not look much like Beane is trying to be. Sometimes you are better off rebuilding and it looks like that is what the A's will be doing this season. Although PECOTA projects Oakland to finish 2nd and Seattle to finish last, look for the Athletics to finish third or fourth again, 10+ games behind Anaheim and Seattle.

Team Projections

Lineup (2007 OBP, SLG, AB, HR, SB)
OF Travis Buck (.377, .474, 285, 7, 4)
1B Daric Barton (.429, .639, 72, 4, 1)
3B Eric Chavez (.306, .446, 341, 15, 4)
DH Jack Cust (.408, .504, 395, 26, 0)
2B Mark Ellis (.336, .441, 583, 19, 9)
OF Emil Brown (.300, .347, 366, 6, 12)
SS Bobby Crosby (.278, .341, 349, 8, 10)
OF Chris Denorfia* (.356, .368, 106, 1, 1)
C Kurt Suzuki (.327, .408, 213, 7, 0)
*Denorfia's stats are from 2006, he spent 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery

Starting Rotation (2007 Record, ERA, IP, K/BB)
Joe Blanton (14-10, 3.95, 230.0, 140/40 )
Rich Harden ( 1-2, 2.45, 25.2, 27/11 )
Chad Gaudin (11-13, 4.42, 199.1, 154/100)
Justin Duchsherer ( 3-3, 4.96, 16.1, 13/8 )
Lenny DiNardo ( 8-10, 4.11, 131.2, 59/50 )

Bullpen (2007 Record, ERA, IP, SV, K/BB)
CL Huston Street ( 5-2, 2.88, 50.0, 16, 63/12)
RHP Santiago Casilla ( 3-1, 4.44, 50.2, 2, 52/23)
LHP Alan Embree ( 1-2, 3.97, 68.0, 17, 51/19)
RHP Kiko Calero ( 1-5, 5.75, 40.2, 1, 31/21)

Manager
Bob Geren

Why They're Good

Travis Buck is a good, patient leadoff hitter who will likely improve upon his performance last year. His .851 OPS last year was good, especially when it is OBP-heavy as a leadoff-hitter. We'll see what he can do if he gets 500 AB. Although he doesn't have much major league experience, Daric Barton projects to become a beast and is the A's top prospect at 22 years old. While Eric Chavez's career appears to be on the decline, look for at least a bit of a rebound from his dismal season last year. Jack Cust looks sort of like a late-blooming Adam Dunn (though without as much power) and should post similar numbers to last year's. Mark Ellis is adequate at second.

Joe Blanton is a pretty good starter, though I would not say that I'd want him as my ace. He does not really overpower anyone, but his stuff is decent enough and he is very durable. He's not terribly different from Barry Zito, except he's younger, right-handed and probably not quite as good. Rich Harden is like A.J. Burnett, only less durable (if you can believe it); he could be an ace on most staffs, if he could manage stay even relatively healthy through a whole season. The rest of the rotation, in my opinion is well-balanced enough. I think Duchscherer will be decent enough and Gauden and DiNardo should eat some innings.

No one in their bullpen is Mariano Rivera, but Street is good and Embree can fit more tobacco in his mouth than you'd find in a Gurkha Beast.

Why They're Not

Well, first of all, they're not really trying to be good this year. You can't take a shower while you're installing a new bathtub and you can't win a World Series while you're rebuilding your baseball club. And that's okay, provided that the Athletics are able to hold on to some of their good players as they reach their peak phases (like Buck and Blanton) and their prospects (like Barton and Brett Anderson) are as good as they hope they'll be.

The numbers that their pitchers will put up will look better than they are in pitcher-friendly Oakland Colisseum. The back end of the lineup is not particularly threatening and, although I hope Chavez is able to rebound, he might not, though it's hard to think he'll have a worse season than last year. Behind Blanton and Harden, their rotation is nothing really special, and Blanton doesn't dazzle you and Harden probably won't make more than 20 starts. Although it's fine to have a fifth starter be an innings-eater, it's not particularly attractive to look at more than one guy in the rotation like that.

Their bullpen should be fine, but don't expect it to make the difference between a moderately bad team and an average team.

Wildcards

Since they aren't really trying to be competitive, there aren't many wildcards, but I guess Harden's health could be considered one, though I don't think anyone expects him to stay healthy. I suppose you could call him making 25+ starts a dark horse. Look for Street to develop as a closer and Buck and Barton to continue their development as good, young hitters. Let's hope, for his sake, that Eric Chavez is able to bounce back and earn his salary, since it's more than 15% of their total payroll.

Fantasy Spin

There's a good chance that you will be able to start Justin Duchscherer in the relief pitcher slot. If you are playing in a deep league, can make daily changes or are not trying to win Saves, he's probably worth a look.

Overall Offseason

None of the moves the A's made can really be evaluated before the prospects they received in return develop into major leaguers, so I'm not going to grade them.

Offseason Grade: Incomplete
Overall 2008 Grade: C-

Devils and Dusty Baker

Once in a Blue Moon, someone writes an absolutely essential piece. Dante Alighieri wrote The Divine Comedy. Then Giovanni Boccaccio wrote The Decameron. William Shakespeare wrote Hamlet. Thomas Jefferson wrote "The Declaration of Independence." Herman Melville wrote Moby Dick, or The Whale. Darwin wrote On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life.

Since Darwin's publication in 1859, there really have not been any seminal works. However, on 10 March 2008, less than a week ago, Paul Daugherty changed that and drew the United States up ahead of those wankers in England and the caffoni in Italy.

His recent article, [Cincinnati Reds Manager Dusty] Baker judges by his senses just may change how people see, not only baseball, but the world.



Before reading Daugherty's article, I thought that batters wanted to walk. Now I realize that "walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth." He also continues to advocate the Reds trading Joey Votto and Homer Bailey for Joe Blanton.

Before reading this jewel, my problem was not so much with Blanton (although I thought this would be a terrible trade for the Reds to make) as it was with Daugherty's argument for him and arguments against statistics in general. Now I have been made to understand that the only pitching statistic that matters is "Games Won."

He has also made me realize that stats like Flyball/Groundball Ratio are unnecessarily complex and Home and Road ERA Splits are too arbitrary and confusing to have any utility when assessing players' strong and weak points.

He goes on to break down statistical analysis the way it should be done: A way that average scientists like me can understand. Who knew that at the end of the season, when all is said and done, each time a batter walks, he has wasted an opportunity to bat in one half of a run? If I had only known that taking fewer first-pitch strikes would improve run production, I could have imparted that wisdom to Tim Raines. If only he'd realized that those 1330 plate appearances where he'd walked could have been changed into 665 RBI, maybe he could have been a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Finally, Daugherty ties up the article in the clearest, simplest manner, by listing the Managerial Win tallies of Dusty Baker and Bill James. 1162 - 0.

Just to put Daugherty's numbers in a bit more perspective here, a little further research shows that Baker also lost 1041 games (for a Winning Rate of .527). Never mind the fact that he has managed the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs who have consistently had two of the highest payrolls in the NL in recent years.

In 2002, Baker's final year in SF, the Giants finished in second place, with 95 Wins and a $78 M payroll, but the only teams with higher payrolls and fewer wins were the NY Mets (75 Wins, $95 M) and the LA Dodgers (92 W, $95 M). In 2006, Baker's final year in Chicago, the Cubs finished with 66 Wins, least in the National League, 17 1/2 games out of first. Please also note that the Cubs had the highest payroll in their division and 3rd highest in the National League.

But, then again, at least Baker knows his scotch.

We Don't Need Johan, We've Got......Scott Baker!

Flashing the Trivia: In the 2006 season, Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen nicknamed some of the Twins players "piranhas," because of them being pesky players. Which players specifically did Guillen label piranhas?

Just a little bit of dialogue from the Mets 1-1 tie in 10 innings two days ago against the Boston Red Sox:

Gary Cohen: So, well that's it, Francona gives the signal its over, Willie concurs and that's the game. So what's that addage Keith, it's like kissing your sister right?

Keith Hernandez: I don't have any sisters so I don't know what it's like.

Cohen: Well you know how it is.

Hernandez: I wish I had a sister though, I really do.


Hey everyone, I'm finally feeling a bit better, though my cough is still lingering. But it won't linger quite as long as the losses of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana for the Twins. Though it is quite nice when a team knows when to pack it in and rebuild, its both logical for the organization (especially a small-market organization) and fun for the fans to see the kids rise through the rankings. Kids indeed, this year's team only has one player, Adam Everett (31), over 30 in the starting lineup. I'll break it down by projected starting line-up and rotation.




















Can Carlos Gomez fill Torii Hunter's shoes in center?

Assuming Carlos Gomez doesn't totally fall apart in spring training (2 hits in 13 at-bats isn't so great but no one else has stepped up), the center field position is his to lose. Gomez looks to fill Torii Hunter's shoes in center, but plays a much different offensive game. Defensively, Gomez shouldn't have too much trouble tracking down balls in center at the spacious Metrodome (as you all know Gomez was believed to have been faster than Jose Reyes). Offensively, Gomez will take full advantage of the very quick turf and if he becomes a slap hitter (a la Luis Castillo), he should be just fine. He's not a power hitter and never will be, but there's nothing stopping him from becoming an above-average center fielder both offensively and defensively. Look for Gomez to put up numbers something like this: .265 avg, 8 homers, 45 RBIs, and 40 stolen bases.

Joe Mauer is looking to bounce back from a hernia, quad, and hamstring injury that plagued him for most of last season. Despite the injuries, Mauer had a very good season by hitting .293 with 7 homers and 60 RBIs in 406 at-bats. He was also very solid behind the plate, with 1 error, 35 assists and 598 putouts in 91 games. He will be asked to help anchor a rotation with 4 out of 5 members having only a full year of experience or less behind them. He has also never struck out more than 64 times in a season, making him a great number 2 hitter as he often puts the ball in play. Mauer, should post numbers similar to last season except with an average more around .320.

Delmon Young is hoping this is the fresh start he needs to take his baseball career to the next level. Young, 22, maybe hitting over-his-head as the number 3 this season, but there's no question that in 2009, he'll be truly ready to be a major part of this lineup. Young had a great year last season, his first full one in the majors by hitting .288 with 13 homers and 93 RBIs. This should be the perfect situation for Young, he shouldn't run into any distractions this season and should become the player everyone thinks he can be. He also looks to improve on his fielding in left but that adjustment should be close to seemless with Gomez out there in center. This season he should hit about .280, with 25 homers and 100 RBIs.

Justin Morneau has been a staple in this lineup for the past three seasons, but has not been counted on as much has he will be this season. In 2007 he had a great year by hitting .271 with 31 homers and 111 RBIs. After signing a six-year $80 million contract (the largest in franchise history), he will be the cornerstone the Twins will build around for years to come. It should be an interesting year for Morneau, 28, to see if he crumbles under the pressure or rises to the occasion. I thought after 2004 and 2005 (hitting .271 and .235 respectively) that he would be nothing more than an average first baseman, but I was wrong. Morneau should rise to the occasion as the Twins try to keep themselves from finishing 4th in the AL Central. Expect Morneau to put up numbers simlar to 2006: .321 AVG, 34 homers and 130 RBIs.

Michael Cuddyer had a breakout year in 2006: .284 AVG with 24 homers and 109 RBIs. While Cuddyer is a steady hitter he is nothing spectacular. What he hit in 2007, I'd expect to be his averages for the rest of his career: .276 AVG, 16 homers and 81 RBIs. His .356 OBP and 107 strikeouts last season are good for a five hitter. Cuddyer has been just about average in right field. But should Cuddyer slip this season, look for the Twins to be in trouble as Morneau will walk much more than last season's career high of 64. So far so good right? After Cuddyer, there is a huge dropoff.

Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe will be splitting time at the DH spot. Kubel, 25, has never made much of a splash in the majors, he hit .273 with 13 homers and 65 RBIs last season. Monroe is a bit more seasoned having played five full seasons in the majors and hitting .219 with 12 homers and 59 RBIs in only 392 at-bats. Monroe has always been quite the decent outfielder so I would envision Monroe being used more to spell Young, Gomez and Cuddyer in the outfield. But overall, because neither of these players are all that great, this platoon will extend into the outfield constantly. Thus giving Gomez and Young the time they need to adjust. Kubel and Monroe will probably post the same as their 2007 numbers, with Monroe posting closer to a .250 AVG.

Brendan Harris came over to the Twins with Delmon Young in the deal that sent Matt Garza to the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. Harris, 27, never got constant playing time until last season with the Devil Rays when he hit .286 with 12 homers and 59 RBIs. Harris will have to adjust being a second baseman after playing shortstop for most of 2007. But he will have a lot of help with Adam Everett at short who is a stellar fielder. We'll see this year if last season was a fluke for Harris. I'd say his numbers drop a little bit: .270 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs.

Mike Lamb spent his four seasons in Houston stuck behind third baseman Morgan Ensberg. Lamb's chance to be an everyday player never really arose, even after Ensberg was traded last August. With some labeling his defense as "suspect," Lamb instead spent the rest of the '07 season playing behind Ty Wigginton in a year in which he hit .289 with 11 homers and 40 RBIs in 124 games. After signing a two-year $6.6 million deal in the offseason, Lamb finally has his shot. Lamb should have a below average season as he adjusts to the American League: .270 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs.

Adam Everett, like Lamb, decided to sign with Minnesota in the offseason. He saw the writing on the wall after the Astros dealt for Miguel Tejada. Everett has always been an astute fielder and usually makes the infield around him better. With Harris at a new position and Lamb's first as a full-time starter, Everett will be a definite asset defensively. But offensively, he'll really be a liability, he hit .232 with 2 homers and 15 RBIs in 220 at-bats last year. Look for Everett to hit around .250 with possibly 10 homers and 50 RBIs.

The Twins rotation right now is as follows (with 2007 stats)

1. Scott Baker, 9-9, 4.26 ERA
2. Boof Bonser, 8-12, 5.01 ERA
3. Livan Hernandez, 11-11, 4.93 ERA
4. Franciso Liriano, 12-3, 2.16 ERA (2006, DNP in 2007)
5. Kevin Slowey, 4-1, 4.73 ERA


The strength of this rotation lies on whether or not Liriano can bounce back from Tommy John surgery in November 2006. Of all these players, Liriano and Baker are the only ones who could become an ace of this staff.

Baker, 26, has fallen into the ace role by default but has the potential to truly fill his role. He struggled mightily in 2006 (3-3, 6.37 ERA in 83.1 IP) and was forced down to the minors after winning the number 5 slot in the rotation. After a great bounce back year in 2007, he finds himself atop the Twins rotation. He should build on last season's success (and near perfect game against the Kansas City Royals on August 31st).

Bonser is dangerous as a number 2 (Liriano should be the number 2 in no time though) I see Bonser more as a 3rd or 4th starter. His game is more offspeed and has struggled to make it past the 5th and 6th innings in his career. But he has lost 20 pounds in the offseason so we will see if that makes a difference.

Livan Hernandez is your prototypical number 4 starter as an innings eater. That's really all he is at this point in his career, look for Nick Blackburn to push him out of the rotation for 2009.

Slowey has been noticeably struggling in the spring thus far, the right-hander struggled in his first Grapefruit League start on Wednesday, giving up three runs on five hits over his two innings against the Yankees. It was the second disappointing outing in a row for the right-hander. Slowey allowed three runs on four hits over 1 2/3 innings in his first spring appearance, facing the Red Sox. It's not what the Twins expected to see from Slowey, who after being recalled on Sept. 3 from Triple-A Rochester, the right-hander went 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six outings last year.

The back-end of the Twins bullpen shapes up to look like this:

Closer: Joe Nathan, 37/41 saves, 1.88 ERA
Right-handed set-up man: Pat Neshek, 2.94 ERA
Left-handed set-up man: Dennys Reyes, 3.99 ERA

Nathan is always steady. In the final year of his contract look for the 33-year-old to keep his number around the same, maybe a few less saves, just because there will be less opportunities. Neshek emerged on the scene in 2006 and became an immediate fantasy darling for leagues that count holds as a stat. In 2007, his numbers took a slight hit after pitching 27 more innings than the previous season. Look for Neshek to usually be the eighth-inning bridge regardless of how many righties the opposition has to bat. Dennys Reyes, was a below average pitcher until his ridiculous 2006 season where he went 5-0 with a .89 ERA in 50.2 innings. Last season he did come back down to earth but which season was a fluke? I'd guess Reyes's ERA will be a little lower this season but float around 3.50.

The Minnesota Twins will struggle this year because they are an extremely young team, but they have made some shrewd moves in order to better themselves for the future. The big holes lie past Cuddyer in the lineup, once those are patched with prospects, the team will be in very good shape for 2009 and beyond.

On a side note, woo hoo! I finally got my diploma from Stony Brook, I was seriously starting to doubt whether or not I had missed a class or something. Make sure if you ever go to Stony Brook University you take Hong Kong Martial Arts Cinema, a class that exemplifies the standard of education that Stony Brook has to offer. Thats right!

Statistics courtesy of twincitylongball.com, picture courtesy of mlb.com


Flashing the Trivia answer: Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Luis Castillo, and Jason Bartlett

New Message Board!

Hey everyone, I just wanted to say that I have created a new message board if you would like to argue about stuff there as opposed to commenting on our articles. It appears just above our newsreel on the right side of the page. Come on people, I know you are out there, the blog counter jumped from 540 to 560 in the past two days since our most recent posts, LET US KNOW YOUR READING, WRITE ON THE BOARD! It only takes a second...

Come on Leatherheads, we love baseball and we know you do too, let's us know your opinions!!

They got it wrong, for I am client 9, muhahaha.

"He Didn't Touch Home Plate!!!"

The San Diego Padres have adopted a new philosophy this season: If their pitchers beat up the opposing team’s offense, their weak offense seems better by comparison.

Alright I made that up but the truth is that San Diego’s offense is not as weak as it seems. They have a handful of good hitters who are victimized by Petco park. Their biggest bat is Adrian Gonzalez who had 10 homers at Petco and 20 homers on the road last year while batting 30 points higher on the road. The rest of the middle of the lineup will include Jim Edmonds, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene. Khalil Greene is one of the few people who’s home runs were comparable at home and on the road (12 to 15). However he batted .216 at home and .288 on the road. Kevin Kouzmanoff had about the same batting average both at home and away but of his 18 home runs, 13 came on the road. The best example is Brian Giles who hit 13 home runs all season only one of which came at home, but if you’re drafting Brian Giles you probably don’t have “winning” as part of your fantasy plans this season. Jim Edmonds moves to San Diego to get a change of scenery and to revive his career. Being 38, injury prone and moving to the least hitter-friendly park in baseball means Jim Edmonds is just another cog to San Diego’s mediocre OF. He might be worth a look in NL only leagues or on big road trips, but I’d ignore San Diego’s OF for fantasy purposes.

The part of the Padres we can’t ignore is the pitching. Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young award last year and it wasn’t even close. There’s really nothing to say about him that hasn’t already been said at this point. More interesting to me is Chris Young. He’s a complete mystery. They say tall pitchers are more durable than short ones yet Chris Young and his 6’10” frame can’t seem to reach 200 innings. In 2006 he was dominant on the road but sucked at home, which is hard to do at Petco, then in 2007, he sucked on the road but was lights out at home. Two seasons in a row he’s been the hardest starting pitcher to hit (with about a .199 batting average against), yet he only had 9 wins last year. I think it’s a safe bet that he’ll be a good pitcher this season but I really can’t forecast anything with him. Maybe he’ll hit 200 innings, maybe he’ll get better run support and get more wins but unless your league counts BAA against, he’s pretty much a riddle. The rest of the Padres rotation is the almighty Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf and Mark Prior.

Yup, it’s that time of year again, that preseason baseball ritual where we all sit around and say “hey, maybe this is the year Prior stays healthy and dominates.” This year has a new twist though as he’s no longer wearing a Cubs uniform. I’ve joked around a few times and have said I bet Mark Prior has an amazing season because all of his various ailments were just a product of the Chicago Cubs and their terrible luck. Maybe he’ll last a whole year and I’ll look somewhat prophetic. He is an interesting pitcher this year though; he’ll be only 27 for the bulk of next season and will probably be helped out by Petco. If he can stay healthy and regain a form that resembles his form of 2003, he’ll be the best buy-low candidate around. The Padres return a very good bullpen featuring Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell and Cla Meredith among others. Hoffman is getting old and hopefully won’t have any lingering mental effects from basically costing the Padres their season last year. I think he’s been around long enough to shake it off and will probably be his usual self. But the concerns are legit.

Over the offseason the Padres acquired Tadahito Igughi. He was a decent second basemen in 2005 and 2006 playing for the White Sox. He probably won’t be worth owning in leagues this year playing in Petco. He signed a 1-year contract with the Padres and is seemingly just keeping second base warm for Matt Antonelli. Chase Headley (yea, there’s another Chase in baseball other than Utley [sorry Chase Wright, you don’t count]) is a natural third basemen but is blocked by Kouzmanoff. However, the Padres and their uninspired offense could use his bat and have had Headley playing outfield in winter ball. Headley played at AA last year and hit 20 homers in 433 at bats along with a .330 batting average and a .437 OBP. He’ll be just 24 this year. Since Edmonds and Giles are injury prone and Scott Hairston just kind of sucks (although his stint with the Padres last season went pretty well) it’s not unlikely that Headley gets a good amount of playing time.

The Padres will once again be a strong and competitive team in baseball’s most competitive division and just like everyone else, will need a few things to go their way to win. If Randy Wolf and Mark Prior are healthy and useful, they probably have the best rotation in baseball. They need Jim Edmonds to remind us that he’s Jim Edmonds. Also worthy of note is that after having a terrible April, Kevin Kouzmanoff rebounded and even batted .317 after the all-star break *cough cough sleeper cough cough*. I think because of the Diamondbacks and Rockies along with the improvements of the Dodgers, this probably isn’t the Padres’ year. In 2009 they’ll have Kouzmanoff, Adrian, Greene, Headley, Antonelli and Josh Bard as a young, strong core of hitters to compliment their strong pitching.