The NL East race won't be decided until the final week of the regular season. The metropolitans, fish, and phils are all talented teams and legitimate contenders. However, in the end, only one of these teams is going to make the playoffs.
Phillies-
If the season were to end right now the Phillies would finish 1 and a half games out of the NL East and 4 games out of the wild card. With only 68 wins at this point of the season Jimmy Rollin's prediction of 100 wins seems a bit out of reach. Unless the Phils can win 32 of their last 36 it looks like the 2007 MVP and the rest of the team will fall short of the shortstop's 100 win prophecy.
Luckily for the team, it won't take 100 wins for them to win the NL East. It will take something that they have been lacking since June 13th where they embarrassed the cardinals 20-2. Bat stability. The offense has not been consistent enough for the team to have success, and the numbers show as the team is only 27-30 after that game. Where they were 41-28 prior. On June 13th, where every St. Louis Cardinal (except Aaron Miles [STL 2nd baseman] who pitched the only scoreless inning in that game) was wishing their was a forfeit rule in baseball, and everyone somewhat related to the Phillies organization (fans, players, coaches, front office members, etc.) had thought the Phillies were about to run away with the NL East race, the hitting started to go downhill. They lost the remaining two games of the series and still haven't gone above .500 baseball since that point.
If the Phillies are going to turn this race around, they are going to need to play "Angels' Baseball". Where they "Get em' on, get em' over, and get em' in." If the pitching stays solid, and if Utley, Howard, or Burrell gets hot they'll be able to win the few remaining crucial games against their division rivals.
Marlins-
During an interview with an ESPN reporter in Spring training Hanley Ramirez asked why they [ESPN] didn't follow them around all the time. He also stated "When we're one game out of 1st place with a week to go they'll be reporters all over the place." I don't think anyone thought Ham-Ram's statement might become a reality come September.
If the Rays weren't having the season they're having the Marlins would be getting a lot more media attention. They're competing against two of the most stacked teams in baseball for a division title with a team that's total payroll is less than that of three players on the Yankees. (A-Rod, Jeter, and Giambi) They may be 5 games out of first at the moment, but don't count the fish out yet. They are a power-packed line-up and the key to their season has been to out slug their opponents. They currently rank 4th in the Majors in round trippers with 167 of them, 53 by the 2B/SS.
The key for this team is to win the important games. They don't have solid pitching (4.45 ERA 20th) and they're second in the league in errors with 95 of them. If the Marlins can use their power in the clutch they could get hot and make a run for the NL East.
Mets-
The Mets are the current leaders of the NL East. The mixture of young superstars (Jose Reyes, Johan Santana and David Wright) and older veterans (Carlos Delgado) creates a very balanced team featuring above average pitching, good power, and speed. After last years September collapse they are looking to redeem themselves by winning the division.
Injuries are keeping the Mets from reaching their full potential. Ryan Church, Luis Castillo, Moses Alou, and Billy Wagner are all important pieces to the New York puzzle that are currently on the Disabled List. The closer situation is also not looking so good. Billy Wagner has not been the same lights out lefty this year as we've seen him be throughout his career. He's battled injuries in his elbow as well as other places in his arm.
If the Mets want to hold on to their slim lead over the other NL East contenders two things are going to need to happen. The back-up players that are starting now because of the injuries such as Fernando Tatis are going to have to keep playing like they have been and really make a positive impact on the team. Also, the late inning guys such as Aaron Heilman who has been thrust into the closer's role due to Wagner's injury are going to need to step up and shut the door at the end of games. The Mets have failed at doing this all year. For example Johan Santana has left the game with the lead numerous times and on many occasions the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guys have failed to keep the lead in tact and get him the victory.
Analysis-
Barring some amazing streak put together by the Marlins, the NL East is going to come down to the Phillies and the Mets, just like it did in 2007. Contrasting to 2007, in 2008 the Mets are on the better side of the head to head record with their division rivals. The upcoming series between the two teams could decide the race. Don't get distracted by the media controversies, injuries, awards, boos, and cheers because in the end there can only be one NL East Champion.
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7 comments:
Be bold. Pick a team. Support your Phils. Why read all your analysis if you aren't going to give a prediction?
Mine is that the Phillies start getting some more offensive production from the second half of their lineup and their power hitters start hitting for power again consistently and the Phillies build up a few game lead before the last week of the season.
I'd love to support them, but the way they're playing at the moment I don't think they'll be able to regain their lead...
It's a tough call. Both the Mets and Phillies have their weaknesses. Both have to do with pitching. The Mets have had a weak bullpen (outside of Billy Wagner, who is still suspect at times) and the Phillies rotation (except Hamels).
But it will be close to the very end, neither team will lose it before the final week.
i dont think it has anything to do with the phillies pitching, their ERA as a team has gone down significantly since last year. the phillies weakness is the inconsistency of their bats, a lot of times their offense is home-run or bust
Hey all --
1st -- Welcome to Flashing the Leather, George . . . Josh, as well. What part of NJ do you live in? I am up in north-central.
This may be sort of cheating, as the Mets have really been pounding opponents since I hit the road for the midwest last week, but it seems to me like the Mets have a good shot at running away with this thing.
-wal
South Jersey and thanks. The division is probably gonna be decided in the Phillies vs Mets series starting tomorrow, if one team can dominate that series they're probably going to be playing in October.
A key to success:
When you are leading by seven runs, don't lose the game.
-wal
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