Saturday, July 5, 2008

Always Split Aces



The prevailing logic is that you always split aces, but even though Mike Peters (as portrayed by Jon Favreau) splits them, Cito Gaston and Mike Scioscia will not tonight. This is just a quick heads-up for all the Leatherheads out there with nothing to do on a Saturday night that two of my favorite pitchers (and, indeed, two of the best the American League has to offer) square off tonight at 9:05 EDT in Los Angeles of Anaheim (or wherever the hell the Angels play) when the big Coloradan, Roy Halladay, faces the big Texan, John Lackey, a great pitcher with a ridiculous name.

Halladay (9-6; 2.90 ERA; 1.04 WHIP) has already authored six complete games this year (including his last start, where he shut out the Mariners) and has been even better than his 9-6 record and 2.90 ERA suggest in striking out 106 and walking just 19 on the season in 130 1/3 IP (leading the league in IP, K/BB and BB/IP ratio). According to my calculations, the Doc's average PQS this season has been 3.88 and he's had a Dominance/Disaster Rate of 41% - 0% (this is amazing compared to anyone but John Lackey) over his 17 starts. He has not faced the Angels this year.

Lackey (6-1; 1.44 ERA; 0.89 WHIP) has been completely absurd since returning from the disabled list. I posted about him a few weeks ago (like I said, he is one of my personal favorites) and he hasn't missed a step since then. Over 68 2/3 IP, Lackey has struck out 54 and walked 13 for a 4.15 K/BB ratio, which would be good for 5th in the AL if he qualified for IP. He'd also be leading the league in both ERA and WHIP. He averages a completely ridiculous PQS of 4.667 per start, with a Dominance/Disaster Rate of 88.9% - 0%. The dude has literally PQSed a 5 in 7 of his 9 starts, with a 4 and 3 in his other two. Unreal. He is also 2-0 against the Blue Jays this year, yielding 3 Runs (2 ER) over 13 IP and 13/4 K/BB.

If you pitching fans out there are not already salivating, consider this: the Angels are 11th in the American League in Runs/Game and the Jays are 13th.


Photo: http://sportsmed.starwave.com/i/magazine/new/swingers_blackjack.jpg
All statistics courtesy of http://baseball-reference.com/
All errors in statistics are the result of sloppy arithmetic on my part

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

The Coaching Merry-Go-Round Continues


It's 3AM, do you know where your team's manager is?


Within the span of four days three weeks ago, the New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, and Toronto Blue Jays each fired their managers amidst disappointing seasons.

This is the first time there were three managerial changes in a four-day span within a season since May 1991, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Back then, Jim Essian replaced the Chicago Cubs' Don Zimmer, Johnny Oates took over from Baltimore's Frank Robinson, and Hal McRae succeeded the Kansas City Royals' John Wathan.

The Mets let manager Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson, and first-base coach Tom Nieto go after a sub-.500 start this season and the team’s poor play. Though 70 games into the season, the firings are widely thought of to be a result of last season in which the Mets suffered the worst collapse in baseball history. The team lost the NL East to the Philadelphia Phillies despite being ahead a full seven games with 17 left to play and failing to make the postseason.

The Mariners let General Manager Bill Bavasi, manager John McLaren, and hitting coach Jeff Pentland go last week as a result of the teams dismal 25-47 start to the season; 17 and a half games out of first place. Before the season, the team was believed to compete with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the AL West crown but bad pitching and inconsistent hitting has led to the team having the worst record in baseball.

The Toronto Blue Jays fired manager John Gibbons, hitting coach Gary Denbo, first-base coach Ernie Whitt, and third-base coach Marty Pevey after a 35-39 record and increasing pressure to compete in the tough AL East. The team went into last weekend with a .258 batting average and next to last with 49 homers in 74 games.

These firings all were not only different in nature and execution, but have all resulted in new hirings that bring back some old faces.

The Mets promoted bench coach Jerry Manuel to replace Randolph on an interm level. Manuel had previously coached the Chicago White Sox from 1997 to 2003 before being replaced by current manager Ozzie Guillen. In the year 2000, following 95 wins and a division title, Manuel was named as the American League Coach of the Year. Manuel also served as Jim Leyland’s bench coach for the Florida Marlins in 1997 en route to the team’s first World Series title.

To fill the other coaching spots, former third base coach Sandy Alomar Sr. was moved to bench coach while former New Orleans Zephyrs (AAA) manager Ken Oberkfell and pitching coach Dan Warthen were promoted to first base coach and pitching coach respectively. Former Mets outfield instructor Luis Aguayo was moved to third base coach, while Howard Johnson maintained his position as hitting coach.

Manuel’s coaching style is just as laid back as Randolph’s but he seems to be more firry when it comes to standing up for his players. He’s already been ejected twice this year; once as manager, once as bench coach.

He also takes a more hands-on and relatable approach with his players. For example, the clean-cut rule is no more (I kind of like Mike Pelfrey’s new beard). Also, whenever a pitcher is removed from the game, Manuel instructs the pitcher who is being removed to wait on the mound and hand the ball off to the new pitcher from the bullpen. He also can be satirical when it comes to disciplining his players, which make both players and fans pay attention. Like what he said when he went to remove Jose Reyes from the first inning of his first game managing the Mets after Reyes made a scene about it:

"I told him the next time he does that I’m going to get my blade out and cut him. I'm a gangster. You go gangster on me, I'm going to have to get you. You do that again, I'm going to cut you right on the field."

But instead of the focus being on what Manuel can bring to the table, it was more about what had gone on over the past month leading up to Randolph’s firing.

His status had been in limbo over the past few months even though General Manager Omar Minaya maintained that “Willie is our manager,” multiple times since his initial meeting with owner Fred Wilpon on May 26th.

Even on June 13th, five days before Willie Randolph was let go, Minaya was quoted as saying, “It's resolved; it's resolved that he's our manager.”

But there were so many reported leaks about Minaya’s words weren’t entirely true, that the media was always there questioning and left Randolph constantly in the hot seat. It wasn’t until their victory over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at approximately 12 AM Pacific Time (3 AM Eastern Standard Time) on June 18th, that Randolph, Peterson, and Nieto were relieved of their duties.

The timing was questionable at best, especially considering the Mets were just leaving for a road trip, but I think the problem lies more with the Met organization than Minaya. Clearly, Minaya’s words were more said in regards to defusing the media hype around Randolph. If the New York media can in essence cause the firing of a manager, there is a problem.

Minaya better watch himself too. On June 21st, the Mets hired former Cincinnati Reds GM Wayne Krivsky as a Special Assistant to Omar Minaya. His responsibilities mainly concern professional scouting. Well, until the media pushes Minaya out anyway.

The rest of the hirings and firings weren’t quite as dramatic.

The Seattle Mariners bench coach and former Chicago Cubs manager Jim Riggleman replaces McLaren as the coach of the team on an interim basis. Riggleman, 55, managed the San Diego Padres from 1992-94 and the Chicago Cubs from 1995-99.

Interestingly enough, interim General Manager Lee Pelekoudas was the one who made the call. He was only hired a few days earlier, replacing Bill Bavasi.

"On a personal level, this was a very difficult decision to make," Pelekoudas said. "John McLaren and I, and many of us in the organization, go back a long way. But from a strictly professional level, I felt this was the right thing to do for the ballclub and for the further advancement of the organization and for our efforts to try to get better this year."

McLaren’s firing was notably different from Willie Randolph’s firing though. McLaren was axed hours before the team left for a three-city interleague road trip.

Riggleman was known as a bold manager in the National League, a fan of the home run who aggressively used pinch hitters and changed pitchers.

"Jim is a serious man," Pelekoudas said. "He's not a guy looking to have fun. He thinks fun's going to happen if you do the right things. If you play hard, play the game right and win, you're going to have fun.”

Another familiar face is Cito Gaston, rehired by the Toronto Blue Jays after manager John Gibbons was fired. Gaston is remembered for leading the Blue Jays to back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993.

The 64-year-old Gaston becomes the Blue Jays' first two-time manager and the fourth-oldest manager in the majors. He previously managed the team from 1989 to 1997, going 681-635 following seven seasons as the hitting coach. He returned as the hitting coach in 2000 but was not retained after the 2001 season.

These were the first major firings of the 2008 season, with probably more to come. Inevitable, yes, but necessary? Usually not. Someone has to be the fall guy (or guys). It doesn’t necessarily mean they are bad coaches, most are usually hired later in the year or before the next season. Then again for every Randolph there is an Art Howe. But I’m pretty confident Randolph, McLaren, and Gibbons will land on their feet.

So who’s next? In these days of media speculation, you really never know.


Sources: seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/367645_mclaren20.html, news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080621/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bba_blue_jays_gibbons_fired, http://www.nypost.com/seven/05262008/sports/mets/willies_meeting_with_wilpons_scheduled_f_112612.htm, http://www.nypost.com/seven/06132008/sports/mets/minaya__willie_has_full_support_115387.htm, http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/06/21/2008-06-21_exreds_general_manager_wayne_krivsky_joi.html, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2008007773_riggleman20.html, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/367774_riggleman20.html



Friday, June 20, 2008

NL West Update

Takashi Saito (#08) celebrates after getting the save against the Cincinnati Reds, June 19th.

Hey everyone, it's been relatively slow in the NL West lately so I will use this post to recap what has gone down.

The Dodgers have been unable to gain any ground on the D-Backs who still seem to be riding out their tremendous April. The Dodgers called up their much-hyped (and deservedly so) prospect Clayton Kershaw a month ago. Kershaw is winless through his first 5 starts and has delivered a mixed performance. On the one hand his ERA is at a respectable 3.75 but his WHIP is currently at a rather ugly 1.58. He has also reached the 6th inning once (his first start). He's averaging about 3 walks per start which is why his WHIP is rather high and his innings are rather low. He'll be decent for the Dodgers as a #4 or #5 going forward but you should avoid him for fantasy purposes. Another reason he'll be decent for the Dodgers is because their rotation is running on fumes. Brad Penny has been pretty terrible all year and now finds himself on the DL after admitting he shouldn't have even made his last start. Poor Jason Schmidt is still recovering and doesn't really look like he'd be able to contribute until maybe mid-August. Recently Hiroki Kuroda injured his right shoulder and has landed on the DL. On the plus side, Chad Billingsly looked really good in his last start!



This pic basically sums up the NL West. Diamondback's first basemen Connor Jackson naps on the field because no one in the West is really interested in challenging the Diamondbacks for the division (Shane Victorino of the mighty Phillies can be seen crying wishing his division was more like the NL West - cheer up Shane, it basically is).

The Diamondbacks sent down prospect Max Scherzer after a cup of coffee in the bigs where he displayed the potential that warranted the hype surrounding his callup. He was sent down to get regular work as a starter. He probably won't be down for long with Micah Owings not looking so hot lately and Randy Johnson still maintaining his status as an injury risk. Everyone's favorite gritty player Eric Byrnes is expected back by Monday. Fantastic.


At one point it looked as though Dinger (the Purple Triceratops who is the official mascot of the Rockies - that's what happens when your team name is tough to personify, I personally would have liked to see Geodude as the official mascot), anyway, it looked as though Dinger was going to have to pick up a glove and play the field for the much maligned Rockies. For the first time, I'm forced to use a list to display the various injuries:

Matt Holliday
Brad Hawpe
Troy Tulowitzki
Clint Barmes
Kip Wells
Luis Vizcaino

along with Jason Hirsh who was recently activated and then optioned to Triple A fills out the list of concurrently injured Rockies. The Rockies as a benefit got to check out their minor leaguers in a major league setting. Ian Stewart has been up and playing (although irregularly) and the Rockies also called up their 2006 first round pick (#2 overall) Greg Reynolds. I've been following his starts and they seem to follow the same pattern where he's pretty effective until one inning where he gives up 3 or 4 runs. At any rate, Troy Tulowitzki is expected back for today's game and Clint Barmes is expected back shortly. The Rockies have been on a roll lately as they've slowly convalesced and have actually escaped last place in the NL West.

More interesting is as the summer trading scene develops, talks of shipping Holliday emerge. As a Rockies fan I can honestly say I don't know what to do and am glad I'm not Dan O'Dowd (their general manager). The Billy Beane in me says deal him, get a bunch of prospects and let Ian Stewart (who really has nothing left to prove in the minors) or Seth Smith man left. However, Holliday is such a valuable piece of their offense and I really feel that next season will be a good one for the Rockies in terms of having their hitting and pitching come together. Also, if anyone wants to get a Brian Fuentes jersey, do it now because he's probably not going to stick around in Colorado much longer.

Next up are the Giants. There hasn't been much to say about them. They were never mentioned in contention for the West and they've surprised everyone this year by not being dead last. Barry Zito is back in the rotation and is working on a 20 loss season. Tim Lincecum is nothing short of an absolute beast and Bengie Molina is a secret good catcher to own in fantasy leagues. Other than that there isn't much going for them and maybe 3 or 4 years from now they'll be competitive again.


Thats a picture of Chris Young, not of the San Diego Padres but of country music fame. He's presumably not on the disabled list with a broken face. The Padres regained their turf at the bottom of the NL West last night and have various problems. As alluded to, Chris Young is on the DL for who knows how long after Albert Pujols ruined him with a shot back to the face. Jake Peavy was shelved but recently came back and is looking healthy and should return to his old dominant self soon. But right before they got Peavy back, first round pick (in 1991...and by the Mariners) Shawn Estes went down with a broken thumb. Sigh.

The biggest Padres news comes from their callup of top prospect Chase Headley. After putting up some solid numbers in the minors, Padres GM Kevin Towers realized that his offense, aside from Adrian Gonzalez (and maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff) pretty much sucks. Through his first three games Chase Headley is batting .333 with a homer. He should finish the season with decent numbers but don't expect anything amazing as he strikes out a lot and is only 24.

In conclusion, look for the NL West to be present in baseball for the 2009 season.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Randolph Sent Off

Oi! I am back, after a 5 thousand year absence (or what seems to be that long). Sorry, I am not writing about the NL Central in my triumphant return. No, instead, I am writing about my favorite team, which I hate with a passion at the moment. It sucks that the Mets keep losing but I could sort of handle that since, historically, the Mets suck. But honestly, do they really think that firing Willie Randolph is going to help?

First of all, that's a horrible way to handle business; firing the guy a little after midnight, when he's hundreds of miles away from home (I'm assuming he lives in NY; makes sense, right?) And they won the game too! At least fire him after a loss if you're gonna do it at midnight on the west coast! And not only that, but like 2 or 3 weeks ago when Randolph sat down with Minaya and whoever else, Minaya said that Randolph's job was secure. I find it hard to believe that it went from secure to nonexistent in just a few weeks time; what a liar! And they also fired Rick Peterson!! Why!? I think Peterson is an excellent pitching coach. He's done a pretty good job with John Maine, and just look at how far Oliver Perez has come since that abysmal season in Pittsburgh when he was 3-13.

So I really don't think Willie deserved to get fired. Yeah, that collapse at the end of last season sucked major ass, but can you place the blame squarely on him? The Mets were in first for pretty much the entire season and then they fall apart at the last minute; to me obviously it's not something that the manager is doing wrong, otherwise they'd been losing from the start. And now you have this season and the team isn't performing up to expectations but they're only 1 game under .500; it's not like a team can't come back from that. Even if they don't, I'd have liked to see him have the opportunity to finish out the season and then get fired if thats what they want to do.

I guess living in NY I should come to expect things like this, since you're supposed to be amazing all the time, just like last season when the yankees were sucking everyone was talking about firing Torre. I'll leave you guys with just one name to say.....Bobby Valentine!

Friday, June 13, 2008

Man Crush Time!




Lance Berkman, how do i love thee? Let me count the ways:

Projected 2008 stats:
in 66 games, the big puma has batted .366 with 19 home runs and 57 rbi's, so to put that in perspective his projected stats read something along this line.
~ 50 HR 150 rbis and a .366 BA
that doesnt even count in the 10 steals and 62 runs hes scored up to this point.

Berkman is notorious for his every other year dominance:(2007 stats

2006 stats
)
and you would be right to think that this year can be historic, and is a Chipper Jones quad tear away from being a legit candidate for the triple crown.
Of course it cant hurt that i own him in my big money yahoo league this year, right?

Recommendation:
TRADE HIM! If your a puma owner like myself, there is no reason to not pursue a deal. During the height of his power streak i was offered berkman and dice k for james shields tim hudson carlos lee and derrek lee.

the only reason why the deal didnt go thru was because the other owner took back the offer for fear of giving me too much value.

If your one of the owners who decides to keep the number one player in the game, enjoy the ride because this will be a magical ride.


look out for the flashing the leather midseason invitational. details coming soon!

Focker out

Monday, June 9, 2008

Griffey Launches Number 600



















Ken Griffey Jr. hits number 600 in the first inning
against the Florida Marlins in the first inning yesterday.



Ken Griffey Jr. ended the nine days of waiting and hit career home run number 600 off of Florida Marlins pitcher Mark Hendrickson today as Junior's Cincinnati Reds defeated the Marlins 9-4. He joins only Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds as the only players to ever reach the 600 home run plateau.

It's hard to wonder where Griffey, 39, would have ended up had his career not been deterred by injuries. It also makes you wonder that around now maybe Griffey would be challenging Barry Bonds' record and maybe steroids wouldn't be such a prevalent topic knowing that the player holding the record had done it legitimately.

Until Alex Rodriguez hit his prime, Griffey was the most complete baseball player I ever saw and probably ever will. In 1999, many fans thought so too as he was voted to the MasterCard Major League Baseball All-Century Team. At 29-years-old he was the youngest player on that list, today he remains the list's only active player.

How can I be so sure he was clean? Well I don't know about you but I'll always remember Griffey being that lanky kid on the Seattle Mariners with that effortless stride, perfect swing and keen baseball sense (and Junior's baseball game for the Nintendo 64, it wasn't great, but it wasn't "Mike Piazza's Strike Zone" either). He'll always be that 25-year-old kid with a smile on his face, his cap backward, and that awkward yet strangely smooth batting stance. He's a little heavier now but nothing questionable and still has that beautiful swing.

As a Met fan, I'll remember Edgar Martinez's double in the 9th inning against the Yankees in the 1995 ALDs when Griffey slid into home to score the winning run and completed the 0-2 series comeback. The Mariners were bounced in the ALCs that year and the Atlanta Braves won the World Series, but I still remember that moment like it was yesterday. Forget that Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire home run race of 1998, it was the complete talent of Griffey and the dominance of teammate Randy Johnson that revived the game from 1995-1998 after the strike.

Now why do most people not remember it this way? Outside of the commercials and the video games, he never desired the attention. In fact back in January of 1988 , only a few months after the Mariners took in in the first pick of the 1987 amateur draft, he attempted suicide by swallowing 277 aspirin. He struggled to cope with the overwhelming media attention, he was only 19 when he found himself on the 1989 Mariners opening day roster.

It would of been a great thing had the Mariners actually been a decent team this year as Junior had suggested finishing his career in Seattle. But the Mariners aren't close to making a run and remain one of the worst teams in baseball. But it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him to rejoin the team as a first baseman with both his and Richie Sexson's contract ending.

Go on Griffey, enjoy the attention you deserve.

"Fly, Fly Away!"


Statistics and courtesy of baseball-reference.com, picture and other information courtesy of mlb.com



Saturday, June 7, 2008

I went to sleep in Shreveport, Woke up in Abilene

A fine photograph of John Lackey's butt1

Just a quick AL West update to note a couple of great games last night. This will also be a good time for me to bring up the idea of Pure Quality Starts (PQS for short). PQS is a system of scoring a pitcher's starts, based on a number of factors (longevity, hit and homerun prevention and dominance of the strike zone) and is quantitatively scored between 0 and 5 for all starts. A score of 4 or 5 indicates a "dominance" start, whereas a score of 0 or 1 indicates a "disaster" start. For more information on how to score PQS, please go to http://baseballhq.com/tour/pqs.shtml.In my opinion, it is a much better way of looking at a pitcher's performance than the more traditional Quality Start stat (which measures simply how long he pitches and how many runs he has yielded).

In a marquee (sort of) matchup (first and second place teams with their #1 starters), John Lackey and the California Angels took on Joe Blanton and Connie Mack's Kansas City Athletics. Personally, I am not a huge fan of Blanton, but I do love Lackey, who has been brilliant since returning from the disabled list (1.70 ERA, 0.946 WHIP over 5 starts). The Angels took this one 3-1 in just over two hours.

Lackey (2-1) PQSed a 5 with a 7 inning gem (7 IP; 4 H; 5 K; 0 BB; 1 ER), yielding a homerun to Jack Cust and not much else.

Blanton (3-8) also pitched very well through 7 innings (7 IP; 7 H; 1 BB; 3 K; 3 R - 2 ER), PQSing 4, but took a hard-luck loss.

K-Rod also notched his 25th save.


King Felix does his best James Dean2

Felix Hernandez (4-5) PQSed a 4 with a 6 inning performance (6 IP; 6 H; 3 BB; 5 K; 0 R) and Sean Green and Ryan Rowland-Smith relieved him to finish the shutout of the Red Sox 8-0.

Finally, Scott Kazmir (6-1) dominated the Rangers for 8 innings (8 IP; 6 H; 0 BB; 6 K; 2 R), PQSing a 5 in the process as well. He's been brilliant since beginning the season on the disabled list as well (7 starts, 1.40 ERA, 0.911 WHIP).

All in all, a pretty exciting night for pitching fans in the AL West.

On another note, what are anyone else's thoughts on the Quality Start vs. Pure Quality Start topic?

1-http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/03KN64GaYN8Oc/610x.jpg
2-http://blogs.dailyillini.com/justbaseball/files/2007/04/felix.jpg

Monday, June 2, 2008

The Book of Joba

Count Jobula lusts after another victim1

AL East Update:

If you've been in a cave for the last two weeks or so, you might not know that Yankees phenom (and True Yankee?) Joba Chamberlain is finally scheduled to start a game tomorrow at Yankee Stadium against Roy Halladay the Toronto Blue Jays.

Chamberlain (1-2; 2.28 ERA; 1.14 WHIP), who I dislike enough to mispronounce his name "Joe Ba" or call simply "#62," has dazzled opponents so far this season over 23 2/3 innings and 20 appearances. His K-rate (11.4/9-IP) is roughly the same as last season (12.75), but his BB rate, (4.2/9-IP), is much higher than last year's (2.25). Even still, at just 22 years old, his 30/11 K/BB ratio suggest that he'll be a top-flight pitcher for years to come.

Halladay (6-5), for his part, is relatively quietly putting together what should be considered a Cy Young Award candidate type of year (2.93 ERA; 0.99 WHIP; 89 IP; 5 CG; 71/11 K/BB).

On a related note, I'll be in attendance at this one.




1-http://www.beatricebaseball.com/Pages/Pictures_2005_files/Chamberlain_cropped.JPG