The prevailing logic is that you always split aces, but even though Mike Peters (as portrayed by Jon Favreau) splits them, Cito Gaston and Mike Scioscia will not tonight. This is just a quick heads-up for all the Leatherheads out there with nothing to do on a Saturday night that two of my favorite pitchers (and, indeed, two of the best the American League has to offer) square off tonight at 9:05 EDT in Los Angeles of Anaheim (or wherever the hell the Angels play) when the big Coloradan, Roy Halladay, faces the big Texan, John Lackey, a great pitcher with a ridiculous name.
Halladay (9-6; 2.90 ERA; 1.04 WHIP) has already authored six complete games this year (including his last start, where he shut out the Mariners) and has been even better than his 9-6 record and 2.90 ERA suggest in striking out 106 and walking just 19 on the season in 130 1/3 IP (leading the league in IP, K/BB and BB/IP ratio). According to my calculations, the Doc's average PQS this season has been 3.88 and he's had a Dominance/Disaster Rate of 41% - 0% (this is amazing compared to anyone but John Lackey) over his 17 starts. He has not faced the Angels this year.
Lackey (6-1; 1.44 ERA; 0.89 WHIP) has been completely absurd since returning from the disabled list. I posted about him a few weeks ago (like I said, he is one of my personal favorites) and he hasn't missed a step since then. Over 68 2/3 IP, Lackey has struck out 54 and walked 13 for a 4.15 K/BB ratio, which would be good for 5th in the AL if he qualified for IP. He'd also be leading the league in both ERA and WHIP. He averages a completely ridiculous PQS of 4.667 per start, with a Dominance/Disaster Rate of 88.9% - 0%. The dude has literally PQSed a 5 in 7 of his 9 starts, with a 4 and 3 in his other two. Unreal. He is also 2-0 against the Blue Jays this year, yielding 3 Runs (2 ER) over 13 IP and 13/4 K/BB.
If you pitching fans out there are not already salivating, consider this: the Angels are 11th in the American League in Runs/Game and the Jays are 13th.
Photo: http://sportsmed.starwave.com/i/magazine/new/swingers_blackjack.jpg
All statistics courtesy of http://baseball-reference.com/
All errors in statistics are the result of sloppy arithmetic on my part
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3 comments:
Well, here's a little debriefing for y'all.
The Toronto Blue Jays took the game 7-5.
Outside of the actual number of runs they yielded, Doc Halladay and John Lackey had pretty similar lines:
Wild West: 7 IP; 6 H; 7 K; 1 BB; 1 HR
Texas: 6 IP; 7 H; 7 K; 1 BB; 1 HR
At first glance, these lines are pretty similar, though Halladay's is a bit better, simply because he managed to get through seven innings. However, the Texan was victimized by bad fielding and some bad luck on balls in play in key spots to the tune of six runs (five earned). The Doc managed to hold the Angels to the two runs scored on Vlad Guerrero's HR (both earned).
Perhaps these two aces only managed to make it through six and seven innings, respectively, because the strike zone was a bit tight (104 pitches in six innings for Lackey and 107 in seven for Halladay), but MLB Extra Innings decided to make this the only game they did not carry last night, so I really cannot be sure. Yes, I'm pretty bitter about it.
Either way, this game highlights an important difference in the opinions of myself and some of the other contributors to this site -- mainly in respect to PQS.
Halladay scored a 5 and Lackey scored a 4. Under the usual definition of a Quality Start, Halladay would have had one and Lackey would not, but in PQS they were very close (and both would be considered dominant). At the heart of this difference is that QS seeks to indicate how a pitcher performed this time out, where PQS seeks to predict how we will perform in future appearances.
How could a starter who gave up six runs (five earned!) in six innings been dominant? Well, it depends on how you look at the start. The number of runs a team scores or yields is a very good indicator of past performance, but can be a very bad predictor. Similarly (and relatedly), hits are also good indicators, but bad predictors. PQS focuses mainly on strikeouts, walks, IP and HR yielded (though there is a point given for hit suppression).
Under normal circumstances, someone with Lackey's line (6 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 7 H) would probably have yielded just one or two runs, either a dominant or relatively dominant performance, which is why PQS reads this as a dominant start. No system for evaluating pitchers is perfect, but I, personally, favor PQS to any other.
George Bush was once asked, if you could have any pitcher to build a rotation around, who would it be? He replied Roy Halladay, and I whole-heartedly agree.
True. I mean, who else gets hit in the face with a line drive and doesn't miss a start?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=TAz0R-srAkM
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