"He Didn't Touch Home Plate!!!"

The San Diego Padres have adopted a new philosophy this season: If their pitchers beat up the opposing team’s offense, their weak offense seems better by comparison.

Alright I made that up but the truth is that San Diego’s offense is not as weak as it seems. They have a handful of good hitters who are victimized by Petco park. Their biggest bat is Adrian Gonzalez who had 10 homers at Petco and 20 homers on the road last year while batting 30 points higher on the road. The rest of the middle of the lineup will include Jim Edmonds, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene. Khalil Greene is one of the few people who’s home runs were comparable at home and on the road (12 to 15). However he batted .216 at home and .288 on the road. Kevin Kouzmanoff had about the same batting average both at home and away but of his 18 home runs, 13 came on the road. The best example is Brian Giles who hit 13 home runs all season only one of which came at home, but if you’re drafting Brian Giles you probably don’t have “winning” as part of your fantasy plans this season. Jim Edmonds moves to San Diego to get a change of scenery and to revive his career. Being 38, injury prone and moving to the least hitter-friendly park in baseball means Jim Edmonds is just another cog to San Diego’s mediocre OF. He might be worth a look in NL only leagues or on big road trips, but I’d ignore San Diego’s OF for fantasy purposes.

The part of the Padres we can’t ignore is the pitching. Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young award last year and it wasn’t even close. There’s really nothing to say about him that hasn’t already been said at this point. More interesting to me is Chris Young. He’s a complete mystery. They say tall pitchers are more durable than short ones yet Chris Young and his 6’10” frame can’t seem to reach 200 innings. In 2006 he was dominant on the road but sucked at home, which is hard to do at Petco, then in 2007, he sucked on the road but was lights out at home. Two seasons in a row he’s been the hardest starting pitcher to hit (with about a .199 batting average against), yet he only had 9 wins last year. I think it’s a safe bet that he’ll be a good pitcher this season but I really can’t forecast anything with him. Maybe he’ll hit 200 innings, maybe he’ll get better run support and get more wins but unless your league counts BAA against, he’s pretty much a riddle. The rest of the Padres rotation is the almighty Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf and Mark Prior.

Yup, it’s that time of year again, that preseason baseball ritual where we all sit around and say “hey, maybe this is the year Prior stays healthy and dominates.” This year has a new twist though as he’s no longer wearing a Cubs uniform. I’ve joked around a few times and have said I bet Mark Prior has an amazing season because all of his various ailments were just a product of the Chicago Cubs and their terrible luck. Maybe he’ll last a whole year and I’ll look somewhat prophetic. He is an interesting pitcher this year though; he’ll be only 27 for the bulk of next season and will probably be helped out by Petco. If he can stay healthy and regain a form that resembles his form of 2003, he’ll be the best buy-low candidate around. The Padres return a very good bullpen featuring Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell and Cla Meredith among others. Hoffman is getting old and hopefully won’t have any lingering mental effects from basically costing the Padres their season last year. I think he’s been around long enough to shake it off and will probably be his usual self. But the concerns are legit.

Over the offseason the Padres acquired Tadahito Igughi. He was a decent second basemen in 2005 and 2006 playing for the White Sox. He probably won’t be worth owning in leagues this year playing in Petco. He signed a 1-year contract with the Padres and is seemingly just keeping second base warm for Matt Antonelli. Chase Headley (yea, there’s another Chase in baseball other than Utley [sorry Chase Wright, you don’t count]) is a natural third basemen but is blocked by Kouzmanoff. However, the Padres and their uninspired offense could use his bat and have had Headley playing outfield in winter ball. Headley played at AA last year and hit 20 homers in 433 at bats along with a .330 batting average and a .437 OBP. He’ll be just 24 this year. Since Edmonds and Giles are injury prone and Scott Hairston just kind of sucks (although his stint with the Padres last season went pretty well) it’s not unlikely that Headley gets a good amount of playing time.

The Padres will once again be a strong and competitive team in baseball’s most competitive division and just like everyone else, will need a few things to go their way to win. If Randy Wolf and Mark Prior are healthy and useful, they probably have the best rotation in baseball. They need Jim Edmonds to remind us that he’s Jim Edmonds. Also worthy of note is that after having a terrible April, Kevin Kouzmanoff rebounded and even batted .317 after the all-star break *cough cough sleeper cough cough*. I think because of the Diamondbacks and Rockies along with the improvements of the Dodgers, this probably isn’t the Padres’ year. In 2009 they’ll have Kouzmanoff, Adrian, Greene, Headley, Antonelli and Josh Bard as a young, strong core of hitters to compliment their strong pitching.