Saturday, April 5, 2008

Is This the Year the "Other" Chicago Team Becomes the Toast of the Town? Umm, Not Quite...

Flashing the Trivia: Last season, on April 18th, Mark Buehrle threw a no-hitter against the Texas Rangers defeating them 6-0. Which former White Sox player drew the only walk Buehrle let up, putting the only blemish on his day? (answer at bottom)

The true start to the baseball season with the series in Japan finishing up a few days ago. I ended up catching bits and pieces of the two games but both games were very fun to watch. A series split, with the first game going into extras. Whether or not you agree with the season starting in Japan (a discussion I'll probably bring to the message board), it's a lot of fun to finally have baseball back.

Well the season previews continue with the Chicago White Sox. A team that strives each year to be something more than the "other" team in
Chicago.

After a few moves, the team has definitely improved themselves from last season. But unfortunately they are still not the Cubs, and even more unfortunate is that they remain in a division with the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers. They'll be lucky to finish near the .500 mark.






















Can Jermaine Dye and the White Sox Turn
Things Around?



Let's go from top to bottom:

Jerry Owens (x) is suffering from a sore right groin but projects to be the starting left fielder and leadoff man when he comes back in a few weeks. Owens hit .268 with a .324 OBP for the Sox in 93 games last season, stealing 33 bases in his first sizable time on the big league roster. He was hitting .361 with a .378 OBP in 10 Cactus League games, but the nagging groin injury limited the speed element of his game, keeping him to one stolen base. He tends to hit for average but hits for close to no power. He declared that this season, with enough playing time, he should be able to steal 60-plus bases. Owens may move to center when he comes back (Nick Swisher to left) but that remains to be seen. The speedster should hit .290 with 7 homers and 45 RBIs this season along with 50 stolen bases.

Orlando Cabrera has always been an overrated player. He's not a bad player, just overrated. He has very little power (10 homers would be a stretch this year) and usually hits in the ball park of a .270 AVG with a .321 OBP. His fielding has been steady over the years as he has won two gold gloves including one last season. He's the White Sox's second best stolen base threat with at least 20 stolen bases over the past few seasons. Nothing spectacular here: .270 AVG, 7 homers, 82 RBIs, .350 OBP.

Nick Swisher will be the team's leadoff man and left fielder while Owens is on the 15-day DL. It's hard to call if Swisher will move to the number 2 hole or number 5 hole, but I believe he belongs here (Ozzie Guillen really likes Orlando Cabrera at 2 because of his propensity to hit-and-run, yeah I don't get it either). Swisher should be a decent number 2, every year he's steadily raised his on-base percentage to last year's peak of .381. If he can cut down on the strikeouts (131 last season, 152 in 2006) and keep increasing the walks (100 last season after 55 and 97 in '05 and '06 respectively) he should crack the .400 mark. Batting in the leadoff spot should do wonders for Swisher's patience, which was already pretty good to begin with. The power has always been there for Swish, maybe with a higher OBP can come a higher average. Look for him to hit .270 with 30 homers and 80 RBIs (hitting out of the two hole, hits RBIs will take a hit).

Jim Thome has been around for awhile and just when you thought he was washed up, he still hangs around with respectable numbers. But still, he's always the guy that one fantasy player drafts only because he either feels he must (in the 14th round) or if he happens to not be there (in the 8th round, ouch). Thome is still a utility-only player as he DHs while spelling Paul Konerko once in every long while (yet David Ortiz remains a first baseman). He should put up numbers similar to last season: .275 AVG, 35 HRS, 96 RBIs, and a .410 OBP.

Paul Konerko follows in the clean-up spot. Each year the power and production are always there, the only thing that drops off every once in awhile is his average. Starting in 2003 he hit .234, .277, .283, .313 and .259 in consecutive years. Despite hitting .406 with 13 hits in 32 at-bats, Konerko has been nursing a toe injury but it shouldn't keep him out of the opening day lineup. He's had his injuries over the years but nothing serious, and I expect the same this season. Something to the tune of a .270 AVG, 30 HRS, and 100 RBIs.

Jermaine Dye is not the best number 5 hitter to have but it is rather difficult when a team has three clean-up hitters, you have to find somewhere to put them. Dye has had numbers similar to Konerko over the years with a fluke 2006 where he hit .315 with 44 homers and 120 RBIs. His numbers tend to be a shade better than the .254 AVG, 28 HRs, and 78 RBIs, that he put up last season. Dye's OBP has been average to below average and his walks are not bad (45 last season) but nothing impressive. His power numbers have kept him high in the lineup, but look for similar numbers to what Dye put up last season with at last one trip to the 15-day DL.

A.J. Pierzynski is batting sixth, for some apparent reason, I believe Joe Crede should be in this spot. Pierzynski is an average catcher, only two years removed from being an All-Star. But he'll always be remembered as the guy on the wrong end of one of the worst deals in Major League history when in 2004 he was sent to the San Francisco Giants for Boof Bonser, Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. Pierzynski does play with fire and his propensity to be a jackass sometimes makes him fun to watch. I'd expect much the same of what he put up last year: .263 AVG, 14 HRs, and 50 RBIs. His best days are behind him.

Alexei Ramirez was a long-shot to not only start, but even make the big league team. After trying to make the team as a back-up second baseman, he won a starting job, but in center field over Carlos Quentin. Ramirez only recently came over from Cuba, so when he signed a four-year deal with the White Sox, never spent any time in the minors. Ramirez was 6-for-16 while playing center field for Cuba in the World Baseball Classic in 2006. He was also part of the 2004 Cuban national team that won a gold medal in the Athens summer Olympics and possesses a .335 career average in Cuba (Wikipedia is a great thing sometimes). I don't know much about him, he appears to be a poor man's Placido Polanco with more power, which is not necessarily a bad thing. I'd expect him to have numbers close to .275 AVG, 15 homers, and 65 RBIs.

Joe Crede has been one of the more overrated third basemen of the past few years, especially in fantasy baseball. He is slightly above average but got a huge boost from a lot of people after his 2006 season in which he hit .283 with 30 homers and 94 RBIs. After an injury-ravaged 2007 campaign and Josh Fields coming on strong, I expect the 30-year-old to have a bit of an off-year as he gets moved at the trading deadline: .270 AVG, 23 homers, 60 RBIs.

Juan Uribe, I'm not really sure why he's in the starting lineup at all. Ramirez should have gotten the second base job while Carlos Quentin got the start in center. Uribe is not that great of a fielder, nor is he too great of a hitter either. Look for no more than .230 AVG, 15 homers, 70 RBIS.

*x- injured.

Now for the rotation (with 2007 stats)

1. Mark Buehrle: 10-9, 3.63 ERA, 115 Ks, 201 IP
2. Javier Vazquez: 15-8, 3.74 ERA, 213 Ks, 216.2 IP
3. John Danks: 6-13, 5.50 ERA, 109 Ks, 139 IP
4. Jose Contreras: 10-17, 5.57 ERA, 113 Ks, 189 IP
5. Gavin Floyd: 1-5, 5.27 ERA, 49 Ks, 70 IP


Mark Buehrle has been the ace for a few years now and has been great at times, like his no hitter last season. But he's been mostly average and has never really been a true ace. Javier Vazquez really isn't a number 2 starter either, he's also been mostly average over the years as well. Danks is largely unproven and his numbers in minors don't exactly scream phenom (4.17 ERA in 69 IP at AA and 4.31 ERA in AAA in 2006 before being brought up). Contreras falls into the same mold as Vazquez, nothing but average. Floyd struggled for three years with the Phillies before being sent to the White Sox in the deal that sent Freddy Garcia the other way.


As you may have noticed, I am not too high on their rotation to say the least. This is what will make them finish a distant third in their division. I'm not too high on their bullpen either:

Closer: Bobby Jenks, 3-5, 2.77 ERA, 56 Ks, 65 IP
RH Set-up: Scott Linebrink, 3-3, 3.80 ERA, 25 SO, 45 IP
LH Set-up: (None) Boone Logan, 2-1, 4.97 ERA, 35 SO, 50.2 IP

The White Sox bullpen was in such a state of flux last season that they severely overpaid to bring in both Linebrink and Octavio Dotel. Linebrink should do well this season as the set-up man, finally creating a bridge to Bobby Jenks. The only problem is the rest of the bullpen. Dotel has been prone to injuries over the years and has historically not done well right away bouncing back from them. Middle relief may be messy once again for the franchise.

Many argue that it isn't too big of a deal if you don't have a prominent lefty-righty combination in the bullpen. I agree with that, but it's hard to argue when you have only one lefty in the bullpen, and that player only has one full year of experience under his belt.

This team is a slightly below average franchise. They're in a bad place right now: not good, but not bad enough to throw in the towel and acquire prospects.
But I really think they should at this point, and the Swisher deal in the end I believe will be more hurtful (Gio Gonzalez will rise with the Athletics) than helpful. After another sub-.500 finish this season, hopefully they do throw in the towel and trade their high priced talent before they get too old and lose their value and get some quality prospects.


Okay everyone, that's it for now. I hope everyone enjoyed the first week of the season as much as I did. Make sure you create your fantasy team now, your not going to remake your team using the waiver wire (which I find out the hard way each year). Also, if anyone of you readers out there would like to contribute, let me know. We are always looking for writers.

Take care everyone, and enjoy spring baseball.


Flashing the Trivia answer: Sammy Sosa.

Statistical information courtesy of mlb.com and baseball-reference.com. Picture courtesy of espn.com.

1 comment:

waldinho said...

i wonder what Ozzie will call jay mariotti this season. and whatever it is, i bet he'll be right.

-wal